JK Nomme Kalju II - Nomme United 2 prediction 21 September 2026

The JK Nomme Kalju 2 vs Nomme United 2 prediction for September 21, 2026, in Estonia's Esiliiga points to an away win. Nomme United 2 enters the match as the favorite with a win probability of around 45%, while JK Nomme Kalju 2 has a 24% chance and the draw sits at 31%.

Team Form

JK Nomme Kalju 2's last five matches: L L L W L. Their most recent outing was a 3-0 defeat at Tartu JK Welco Elekter on Sep 14. Prior to that, a heavy 5-1 home loss to Flora Tallinn II and a 1-0 away loss to Elva. The only bright spot was a 2-0 win at FC Tallinn on Aug 29, but they followed it up with a 4-2 home reverse against Tartu JK Welco Elekter. Overall, one win in five, with five goals scored and thirteen conceded.

Nomme United 2's form reads W W L L L. They claimed back-to-back home wins on Sep 13 (1-0 vs Viimsi MRJK) and Sep 10 (2-1 vs Tallinna Kalev). However, away defeats at FC Maardu (2-1) and Viimsi MRJK (4-1), along with a 1-0 home loss to Elva, show fragility. The visitors have netted five times in five games, conceding eight.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head-to-head record shows JK Nomme Kalju 2 with a slight edge: 2 wins to Nomme United 2's 1, plus 1 draw in the last four meetings (all in Esiliiga except the 2020 League U19 draw). The most recent encounter was on Aug 17, 2026, when Nomme United 2 won 2-0 at home. Prior to that, JK Nomme Kalju 2 triumphed 4-1 at home on Jun 15, 2026, and won 3-0 away on Apr 24, 2026. The earlier draw (2-2) dates back to 2020.

League Table Positions

JK Nomme Kalju 2 is bottom of the Esiliiga table (10th) with 22 points from 29 matches (6 wins, 4 draws, 19 losses). They have scored 36 goals and conceded 76. Nomme United 2 sits 8th with 33 points from 29 games (9 wins, 6 draws, 14 losses), scoring 47 and conceding 60. The 11-point gap and 29-goal difference in goal difference highlight a disparity in overall quality.

Win Probability: JK Nomme Kalju 2 or Nomme United 2?

Based on the odds, head-to-head, form, and league standings, the win probabilities are calculated as: JK Nomme Kalju 2 – 24%, Draw – 31%, Nomme United 2 – 45%. These percentages are derived from the betting market’s implied probabilities (home 27.8%, draw 35.7%, away 51.3% pre-margin) and adjusted downward for the home team's poor form and low table position. Despite a historical edge for JK Nomme Kalju 2 in head-to-head, current performances heavily favor Nomme United 2, who are higher in the table and have recorded wins over top-four sides recently.

JK Nomme Kalju 2 vs Nomme United 2 Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers offer a home win at 3.60–4.23, a draw at 2.80–5.17, and an away win at 1.62–1.95. The tightest odds are on Nomme United 2 to win, confirming their favorite status. With that range, a moderate stake on the away side could be considered for betting tips, but the draw price is also attractive given both teams' defensive issues. Our prediction: Nomme United 2 to win, but the draw is a realistic outcome as well.