TP-T vs NoPS prediction for the Kolmonen match on Sep 10, 2026, at 15:00. Based on recent form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, NoPS enters this fixture as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability.
TP-T's last five matches show inconsistency: L, W, W, W, L. They suffered a 2-1 away loss to Saaksjarven Loiske on Sep 5, then previously beat LeKi 2-0 at home, thrashed Haka Juniorit 7-0 away, demolished TP 49 11-2 at home, and lost 3-0 to FC Lasten on Aug 6. At home, they have been strong with two big wins, but the two losses highlight defensive vulnerabilities.
NoPS is in superb form with five consecutive wins: W, W, W, W, W. They beat LeKi 3-2 at home on Sep 4, crushed Fish United FC 8-0, won 2-0 at ACE, 2-0 at Saaksjarven Loiske, and 7-0 at home against Haka Juniorit. The team has kept clean sheets in four of those five matches, scoring 22 goals in total, and their away performances have been equally dominant.
In 11 previous meetings, TP-T has won 3 times, NoPS 8, with no draws. The last five encounters: NoPS won 4-3 away on Sep 20, 2025; TP-T won 2-1 away on Jun 12, 2025; NoPS won 2-1 at home on Aug 25, 2023; NoPS won 2-1 away on Jun 27, 2023; and NoPS won 2-0 away on Sep 29, 2022. NoPS has clearly dominated this matchup, winning 4 of the last 5 and showing consistent superiority.
We calculated the win probabilities using the bookmaker odds as a base and adjusting for form and head-to-head statistics. The average implied probability from the odds (after removing the margin) gave NoPS around 41.3%, TP-T 26.9%, and the draw 31.7%. However, NoPS's perfect five-match winning streak and their 8-3 head-to-head advantage significantly boost their chances. Our adjusted probabilities are:
Therefore, NoPS is the most likely winner, with a 55% chance of taking all three points.
Bookmakers offer the following 1X2 odds for this Kolmonen clash: home win (TP-T) between 3.20 and 3.40, draw between 2.80 and 4.40, and away win (NoPS) between 1.72 and 2.15. The best price for a NoPS victory is 2.15, reflecting their favorite status. Our prediction: based on the stats, NoPS to win. The visitors' current form and historical dominance make them the smart pick.