North Carolina Courage Women - San Diego Wave Women prediction 18 October 2026

Looking for a North Carolina Courage Women vs San Diego Wave Women prediction? The NWSL Women clash on Sep 12, 2026, at 22:30 (UTC) sees San Diego Wave Women host North Carolina Courage Women. According to our analysis, San Diego Wave Women have a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and North Carolina Courage Women hold a 28% probability.

Team Form

San Diego Wave Women have won three of their last five matches (W, W, D, L, W). They scored 3-2 against Racing Louisville Women, 4-2 versus Utah Royals FC Women, drew 1-1 with Denver Summit Women, lost 0-1 to Gotham FC Women, and beat Washington Spirit Women 1-0. That's 10 points from a possible 15, showing strong attacking form at home.

North Carolina Courage Women’s last five results: W, L, W, W, L. They thrashed Chicago Red Stars Women 6-0, lost narrowly 2-3 to Kansas City Women, defeated Angel City Women 2-0, beat Boston Legacy FC Women 2-1, and fell 2-3 to Houston Dash Women. They have scored 14 goals in these five games but also conceded 10, indicating both defensive vulnerability and attacking threat.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous head-to-head meetings between San Diego Wave Women and North Carolina Courage Women in our data. This will be the first-ever encounter according to available records.

League Table Positions

In the NWSL Women standings, San Diego Wave Women sit 4th with 39 points from 22 matches (12 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses). North Carolina Courage Women are 7th with 36 points from 22 matches (11 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses). The home team has a slight edge in the table, though both sides are in the upper half. At home, San Diego have 6 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses in 12 games, ranking 6th in the home table. North Carolina’s away record is 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 10 games, also 6th in the away table.

Win Probability: North Carolina Courage Women or San Diego Wave Women?

This section answers the most searched question: who will win? Based on odds, form, and home advantage, we calculate the following probabilities:

• San Diego Wave Women win: 42%
• Draw: 30%
• North Carolina Courage Women win: 28%

The initial bookmaker odds implied a home win probability of 34.9%, a draw at 39.1%, and an away win at 25.9% (after removing the margin). We adjusted these numbers upward for San Diego Wave Women because of their strong home scoring record (3 wins in the last 4 home games) and the fact that they are hosting. North Carolina’s away form is mixed (a 6-0 win followed by a 2-3 loss), so their chances are slightly lower. The draw remains a real possibility given the odds, but the home team is the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match tightly. The first odds set shows a home win at 2.52, draw at 2.25, and away win at 3.40. Another bookmaker lists 2.50, 2.30, and 3.25. The short odds on the draw (2.25–2.30) suggest that bookies see a stalemate as a strong outcome. However, our prediction leans toward a San Diego Wave Women victory. The final score prediction: 2-1 to San Diego Wave Women. But a draw is also a sensible betting tip, given the odds and the teams’ comparable strength.