Liversedge - North Ferriby United prediction 29 September 2026

The Liversedge vs North Ferriby United prediction for September 29, 2026, tips off at 19:45 in the Northern Division One. Based on the latest odds and team form, Liversedge are the favourites with a 40% chance to win, while the draw sits at 35% and North Ferriby United hold a 25% probability.

Team Form

Liversedge come into this match with a mixed last five: W, W, W, L, L. Their most recent home league game was a dominant 3–0 win over Silsden on Sep 22, and they also put five past Lincoln United (5–2) on Sep 5. However, heavy defeats to Pontefract Collieries (0–5 away) and Bootle (0–5 at home in the FA Trophy) highlight defensive vulnerabilities. Overall, at home in the league they have scored freely when on song, but the Bootle loss shows they can be punished.

North Ferriby United’s last five results read L, W, L, W, D. Their only away game in that run was a 0–2 defeat at Garforth Town on Aug 25. On home soil, they beat Beverley Town 1–0 and Campion AFC 2–1 (FA Cup), drew 2–2 with West Auckland Town, and lost 0–3 to Matlock Town. The away form is a concern, managing just that one clean sheet in their travels and failing to score in two of their last three matches overall.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Liversedge and North Ferriby United shows no previous meetings in available data – 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins. With no recent history to lean on, form and odds become the primary guides for this prediction.

League Table Positions

Neither Liversedge nor North Ferriby United appear inside the top 12 of the Northern Division One standings provided. The upper end of the table is led by Bury (87 points), Avro (85) and Stalybridge Celtic (79). Both sides are therefore lower down the pyramid, making this match vital for climbing the ladder, but no exact rankings are available to factor into the probability model.

Win Probability: Liversedge or North Ferriby United?

The win probability calculation, based on bookmakers' odds and adjusted for recent form, gives Liversedge a 40% chance of winning, the draw 35%, and North Ferriby United 25%. The raw odds implied probabilities (after removing the margin) were around 39% for a home win, 39% for a draw and 22% for an away win. Liversedge’s home advantage, together with their recent high-scoring home performances (9 goals in their last two home league fixtures), slightly lifts their chances above the draw. North Ferriby’s poor away displays and lack of consistent scoring on the road push their likelihood down, but the draw remains a very real possibility given both sides’ defensive lapses.

Odds & Match Prediction

Two bookmaker sets are available for the 1X2 market: one offers home 2.30, draw 2.30, away 4.00; another provides home 2.25, draw 2.38, away 4.33. These odds confirm that bookmakers see Liversedge as the favourite, but the tight draw price underscores how close the contest is expected to be. Our final Liversedge vs North Ferriby United prediction aligns with the numbers: based on the stats, Liversedge are the more likely winners, but a draw is a strong alternative. Betting tips should consider the “double chance” market or backing the home side with caution, given the 40% win probability.