North Macedonia U21 - Montenegro U21 prediction 1 October 2026

Our North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 prediction for the Euro Championship U21 Qualification match on October 1, 2026, at 17:00, highlights a tight contest. Based on current form and head-to-head records, North Macedonia U21 holds a slight edge as the favorite, with a calculated win probability of 38%.

Team Form

Both squads enter this fixture with mixed recent results. North Macedonia U21 has struggled in their last five outings, recording four losses and one win. Their most recent match was a 2-3 defeat against Russia U21 in a friendly, following a heavy 1-5 loss to Morocco U20. The only victory in this stretch came against Armenia U21 in the qualification campaign.

Montenegro U21 shows a more balanced but still inconsistent form. Their last five matches include two draws, two losses, and one win. They recently drew 1-1 with Cyprus U21 and lost 0-1 to Poland U21. However, they secured a 2-1 win over Armenia U21 in November 2025, demonstrating their ability to score in qualification matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head history between these two teams favors North Macedonia U21. In the last four recorded meetings, North Macedonia U21 won three times, while Montenegro U21 secured one victory. There have been no draws in their direct confrontations.

The most recent encounter took place on October 14, 2025, where Montenegro U21 won 3-2 as the home team. Prior to that, North Macedonia U21 won 2-1 in November 2020 and 2-1 in October 2019. This H2H record suggests that matches between these sides are often competitive and high-scoring.

League Table Positions

Specific league table positions for North Macedonia U21 and Montenegro U21 are not provided in the current overall standings data, which lists top European U21 teams like Poland U21 and England U21. However, both teams are actively participating in the Euro Championship U21 Qualification. The absence of these teams in the top 12 overall rankings indicates they are likely positioned lower in their respective groups or have fewer points compared to the leading nations.

Win Probability: North Macedonia U21 or Montenegro U21?

Calculating the win probability requires analyzing the implied odds and adjusting for form. The average bookmaker odds for a North Macedonia U21 win are approximately 2.71, for a draw 2.16, and for a Montenegro U21 win 2.69. Normalizing these odds to remove the bookmaker margin yields a base probability of roughly 36% for North Macedonia U21, 45% for a draw, and 36% for Montenegro U21.

However, given the head-to-head advantage of North Macedonia U21 (3 wins in 4 matches) and their home status, we adjust the probabilities. The draw probability is reduced due to the H2H history showing no draws. Consequently, North Macedonia U21 has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Montenegro U21 has a 38% chance. The slight edge goes to the home team due to historical dominance in this fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this match as evenly poised, with odds for North Macedonia U21 win ranging from 2.62 to 2.82, and Montenegro U21 win odds between 2.32 and 2.90. Draw odds hover around 2.08 to 3.38. Based on the stats, the prediction leans towards a narrow North Macedonia U21 victory or a high-scoring draw. Betting tips suggest considering 'Both Teams to Score' given the recent H2H results where both sides found the net in three of the last four meetings.