Sweden U21 - North Macedonia U21 prediction 5 October 2026

Our Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21 prediction for the Euro Championship U21 Qualification match on Oct 5, 2026, points to a home win. Sweden U21 has a 60% chance of winning, while North Macedonia U21 has just a 12% chance, with the draw at 28%. Bookmakers strongly favor the Swedes, and recent head-to-head results back that up.

Team Form

Sweden U21's recent form has been poor, with three losses, one draw, and one win in their last five matches. They lost 3-0 to Poland U21 on Sep 30, 2026, 3-1 to Finland U21 in a friendly on Jun 4, and 4-0 to Italy U21 on Mar 31. The only positive results were a 2-2 draw with Montenegro U21 on Mar 27 and a 1-0 win over Armenia U21 on Nov 18, 2025.

North Macedonia U21 are also struggling, with four losses and one draw in their last five. They drew 1-1 with Montenegro U21 on Oct 1, 2026, but lost 3-2 to russia U21 in a friendly, 5-1 to Morocco U20, 3-0 to Turkey U21, and 1-0 to Bulgaria U21. Neither side comes into this match in good shape.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last three meetings, Sweden U21 have won twice and North Macedonia U21 once, with no draws. The most recent clash on Nov 13, 2025, saw Sweden U21 win 4-1 away. Before that, Sweden won 2-0 away on Mar 26, 2024. North Macedonia's only win came at home on Sep 8, 2023, a 1-0 victory. The head-to-head record clearly favors Sweden U21.

League Table Positions

Neither Sweden U21 nor North Macedonia U21 appear in the top 12 of the overall Euro Championship U21 Qualification standings, which are dominated by teams like Poland U21 (27 points), Germany U21 (24), and Spain U21 (24). This suggests both are lower in the group, but Sweden's superior head-to-head and home advantage give them the edge.

Win Probability: Sweden U21 or North Macedonia U21?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Sweden U21 has a 60% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and North Macedonia U21 has a 12% chance. The bookmakers' odds imply a similar breakdown, with Sweden U21 as the strong favorite. Despite both teams' poor recent form, Sweden's historical dominance in this fixture and the home field make them the likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are 1.31 for a Sweden U21 win, 2.68 for the draw, and 6.90 for a North Macedonia U21 victory. These odds reflect Sweden U21's status as the clear favorite. Our Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21 prediction is a home win, with the most probable outcome being a Sweden U21 victory. However, given both teams' leaky defenses, a bet on over 2.5 goals could also be worth considering.