Slovenia - North Macedonia prediction 29 September 2026

Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Sep 29, 2026 at Stadion Stozice. Based on our analysis, Slovenia has a 55% chance of winning, while North Macedonia has just a 15% chance, with a 30% probability of a draw. Read on for detailed betting tips, odds, and head-to-head stats.

Team Form

Slovenia's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses. They drew 0-0 with Scotland on Sep 26, lost 2-1 away to Croatia, drew 1-1 at home to Cyprus, won 3-2 away to Montenegro, and lost 1-0 away to Hungary. At home, they have drawn both of their last two fixtures, failing to score in the most recent one. Overall, they have scored 5 goals in these 5 games, conceding 6.

North Macedonia, on the other hand, is struggling significantly. They have failed to win any of their last five matches, losing three and drawing two. More worryingly, they have not scored a single goal in those five games: a 0-3 home loss to Switzerland, 0-3 and 0-4 away defeats to Turkey, and goalless draws away to Bosnia-Herzegovina and Ireland. Their attack looks toothless, and they will need a massive improvement to trouble Slovenia. All five of these matches were on the road or at neutral venues, so they are accustomed to playing away, but the lack of goals is a huge concern.

Head-to-Head Record

These two nations have met only once in recent history, a friendly international on June 1, 2021. That match ended in a 1-1 draw. With such a limited head-to-head record, it's hard to draw strong conclusions, but the previous encounter suggests a tight contest. However, current form heavily favors Slovenia.

League Table Positions

Neither Slovenia nor North Macedonia feature in the top 12 of the overall UEFA Nations League standings provided. This indicates both teams are likely in lower divisions or have yet to make an impact in the current campaign. Slovenia will be looking to use home advantage to climb the rankings, while North Macedonia aims to end their goal drought and secure their first points.

Win Probability: Slovenia or North Macedonia?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we have calculated the win probabilities for this match. Slovenia has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and North Macedonia has a 15% chance. Slovenia's home ground and slightly better recent results give them the edge, while North Macedonia's scoring woes make an away win highly unlikely. The implied probabilities from bookmaker odds (after removing the margin) gave Slovenia a 51% chance, but we have adjusted this upward due to North Macedonia's terrible form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Slovenia as clear favorites. The average odds across multiple bookmakers are around 1.61 for a Slovenia win, 2.34 for a draw, and 5.89 for a North Macedonia victory. For example, one bookmaker offers 1.67 for a home win, 3.70 for a draw, and 6.88 for an away win. These odds imply a home win probability of about 51% before adjustments. Considering North Macedonia's poor form and lack of goals, the value might still be on a Slovenia win. Our prediction: Slovenia to win, with a low-scoring affair likely given both teams' recent struggles in front of goal. The match kicks off at 19:45 local time at Stadion Stozice in Ljubljana, officiated by referee Andrea Colombo.