North Texas SC - Houston Dynamo II prediction 14 September 2026

North Texas SC vs Houston Dynamo II prediction for the MLS Next Pro match on September 10, 2026, at 00:45 UTC. Based on head-to-head statistics and league standings, Houston Dynamo II enters as the favorite with a 50% win probability, while North Texas SC has a 20% chance and the draw is at 30%.

Team Form

North Texas SC's recent form has been mixed, recording one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches (W, D, D, D, L). Their most recent outing was a convincing 4-1 home victory over Real Maryland Monarchs on September 5. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 away at Saint Louis II, and had home stalemates against Minnesota United II (1-1) and Austin II (0-0). A 0-3 home loss to Portland Timbers II on August 16 remains a defensive worry. Across these five games, North Texas SC scored 6 goals and conceded 7.

Houston Dynamo II's form has dipped sharply, with no wins in their last five matches (L, L, D, D, L). They suffered consecutive home defeats against Austin II (0-2) and Minnesota United II (0-2), followed by a 2-2 away draw at Saint Louis II and a 1-1 home draw with San Jose Earthquakes II. Their most recent result was a 0-2 home loss to Ventura County on August 14. During this slump, Houston Dynamo II scored just 3 goals and conceded 9, a stark contrast to their strong season overall.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record heavily favors Houston Dynamo II. In 12 meetings, Houston Dynamo II has won 8 times, North Texas SC has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent clash on March 21, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home win for Houston Dynamo II. Other notable results include a 3-0 Houston win in July 2025 and a 5-1 Houston victory in March 2025. North Texas SC's last win over Houston came on May 19, 2025, a 2-1 home success. The overall goal difference in these head-to-head matches is clearly in Houston's favor.

League Table Positions

Houston Dynamo II sits 4th in the MLS Next Pro overall standings with 51 points from 25 matches (17 wins, 0 draws, 8 losses). They have been strong on the road, collecting 8 wins from 12 away fixtures. North Texas SC is not present in the top 12 of the table, indicating they are significantly lower in the league hierarchy. This gap in the standings reflects the likely quality difference between the two sides, with Houston Dynamo II having a much more successful campaign.

Win Probability: North Texas SC or Houston Dynamo II?

Taking into account the head-to-head dominance (8 wins for Houston), the league table disparity, and the teams' recent form, we estimate the following probabilities for this match: North Texas SC win – 20%, draw – 30%, Houston Dynamo II win – 50%. Although Houston Dynamo II is enduring a poor run of results, their overall season performance and historical success against North Texas SC make them the more probable winner. North Texas SC's home advantage and Houston's recent struggles, however, increase the likelihood of a draw. The match outcome probabilities are calculated by weighting the historical head-to-head record, current league positions, and the last five games' form, with home advantage giving North Texas SC a slightly higher chance than the raw H2H numbers suggest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match are not available at the time of writing. Based on the statistical analysis, Houston Dynamo II is the predicted winner, but the high probability of a draw cannot be ignored. A cautious betting tip would be to consider the double chance of Houston Dynamo II or draw. North Texas SC's recent home win over Real Maryland Monarchs shows they can find the net, but Houston's defensive record on the road this season (22 goals conceded in 12 away games) suggests they might be vulnerable. Still, the smart money is on an away win or a stalemate given the form and table data.