Derby County U21 - Norwich City U21 prediction 26 October 2026

The Derby County U21 vs Norwich City U21 prediction for Oct 26, 2026 points to a close Premier League 2 U21 match. Based on odds, recent form, head-to-head and the league table, Norwich City U21 hold a 40% chance of winning, while Derby County U21 are at 32% and the draw is 28%.

Team Form

Derby County U21 come into this fixture with a win, a draw and three losses in their last five matches (W, D, L, L, L). They won 4-0 away at Birmingham U21 on Oct 19, drew 2-2 at Scunthorpe United in the National League Cup, then lost 2-4 to Brentford U21, 1-4 to Burnley U21 and 1-3 at home to Tottenham Hotspur U21. That is 10 goals scored and 13 conceded in five games.

Norwich City U21 have three wins, one draw and one loss in the same period (D, W, L, W, W). They drew 1-1 with Bristol City U21, beat West Ham U21 4-2, lost 3-5 to Aldershot Town, then won 3-2 at Reading U21 and 3-1 at Exeter City U21. Over these five matches they scored 14 goals and conceded 11.

• Derby County U21 last 5: W, D, L, L, L (10 scored, 13 conceded)
• Norwich City U21 last 5: D, W, L, W, W (14 scored, 11 conceded)

Head-to-Head Record

The only head-to-head match in the supplied data was on Oct 31, 2025, in the Premier League 2 U21: Derby County U21 0-3 Norwich City U21. Therefore, the head-to-head record is Derby County U21 0 wins, 0 draws, Norwich City U21 1 win.

League Table Positions

In the overall standings provided, Norwich City U21 are 7th with 10 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 10 goals scored, 7 conceded). Derby County U21 are not present in the top 12 of the supplied table, which suggests a weaker league position.

Win Probability: Derby County U21 or Norwich City U21?

To assess who will win Derby County U21 vs Norwich City U21, we start with the listed 1X2 odds. The average bookmaker prices across the five supplied odds sets are 2.40 for Derby County U21, 3.19 for the draw and 2.49 for Norwich City U21. Removing the bookmaker margin gives a base probability of about 36.8% for Derby County U21, 27.7% for the draw and 35.5% for Norwich City U21.

Adjusting for team form, head-to-head and league positions moves the model toward Norwich City U21. They have better recent form, a 0-3 win in the only H2H meeting and a higher league rank. Derby County U21 have home advantage on paper, but their only home match in the last five was a 1-3 defeat.

Final win probability: Derby County U21 has a 32% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Norwich City U21 has a 40% chance. This makes Norwich City U21 the most likely winner, although the margin is moderate.

Odds & Match Prediction: Derby County U21 vs Norwich City U21

The pre-match odds from the JSON show a tight market. Derby County U21 odds range from 2.25 to 2.59, draw odds from 2.62 to 4.23, and Norwich City U21 odds from 2.30 to 2.62. Some bookmakers see Derby County U21 as a narrow home favourite, but others price Norwich City U21 shorter. Average odds are 2.40 (Derby), 3.19 (draw) and 2.49 (Norwich).

Based on the stats, the prediction is Norwich City U21 to win, in line with their better form and 40% win probability. However, with a 28% draw probability and Derby County U21 at 32%, this is a closely matched fixture. A draw is a realistic outcome, so the value may be in the Norwich City U21 double chance market.