Bjarg - Notodden prediction 11 October 2026

Our Bjarg vs Notodden prediction for the 2nd Division match on October 11, 2026, gives the home side a 60% chance of winning. The game kicks off at 12:00 at Bjarg's ground, with the hosts in superb form and clear favourites according to the latest odds. Notodden face an uphill task, holding just a 15% win probability, while the draw is rated at 25%.

Team Form

Bjarg come into this fixture on the back of four wins from their last five outings. They beat Kvik Halden 3-2 away, Eik-Tonsberg 2-0 away, hammered Traeff 6-1 at home, and thrashed Vidar 4-1 on the road. The only blip was a 4-1 cup defeat to Bryne. That run of league results shows a team scoring freely and full of confidence.

Notodden's recent form is the opposite. They have lost three of their last five, drawing one and winning just once. A 3-1 home loss to Eik-Tonsberg, a 1-0 defeat at Jerv, and a 3-2 cup exit to Odds BK were followed by a 1-1 draw at Traeff. Their sole victory was a 4-1 home win over Arendal. The visitors have struggled for consistency and conceded in four of those five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met only once in recent history. On April 25, 2026, Notodden hosted Bjarg and lost 1-0. That result gives Bjarg a 100% winning record in the head-to-head, with no draws. The single goal decided a tight contest, but the psychological edge belongs to the away side from that day – now playing at home.

League Table Positions

Bjarg sit 3rd in the 2nd Division with 44 points from 22 matches (14 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats). They have scored 47 goals and conceded 28. Notodden are 6th on 35 points (10 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses) with 31 goals for and 20 against. The nine-point gap reflects the difference in overall performance. At home, Bjarg have a 6-1-4 record, while Notodden's away form is respectable at 6-3-2 – the third-best away record in the league. However, the hosts' superior goal difference and higher position underline their favourite status.

Win Probability: Bjarg or Notodden?

Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head result, and league standings, we calculate the following win probabilities: Bjarg win – 60%, draw – 25%, Notodden win – 15%. The bookmakers' average implied probability (after removing the margin) gave Bjarg around 58.8%, and we have slightly adjusted upward due to their excellent form and the H2H win. Notodden's away resilience keeps the draw at a quarter chance, but an away victory looks unlikely.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers heavily favour Bjarg. The best available home win odds range from 1.35 to 1.38, the draw is priced between 2.62 and 4.75, and an away win can be backed at 5.00 to 5.75. These odds reflect the gulf in form and table position. Our Bjarg vs Notodden prediction is a home win. Bjarg's attacking momentum and Notodden's leaky defence point to a comfortable afternoon for the hosts. A correct score bet on 2-0 or 3-1 could offer value, but the safest betting tip is simply backing Bjarg to take all three points.