Wycombe Wanderers - Notts County prediction 17 October 2026

Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County prediction: The League 1 match at Adams Park on October 17, 2026, sees Wycombe Wanderers take on Notts County. Our win probability model gives the home side a 52% chance of victory, with the draw at 26% and an away win at 22%.

Team Form

Wycombe Wanderers' recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches (L, W, D, D, W). They suffered a heavy 4-1 home defeat to Luton Town on October 10 but bounced back with a 4-1 EFL Trophy win over Bristol Rovers. In the league, they drew 0-0 at Bromley and 2-2 at home to Reading, and won 1-0 at Wigan Athletic. The Chairboys have been inconsistent but are capable of strong performances at home.

Notts County have won two and lost three of their last five (W, L, W, L, L), but both victories came in the EFL Trophy. In League 1, they have lost three straight matches: 2-1 at home to Oxford United, 2-0 at Reading, and 1-0 at home to Bradford City. Their away league form is a concern, and they have managed just one goal in those three defeats.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between these sides have seen Wycombe Wanderers fail to win, with three draws and two Notts County victories. The most recent three encounters, all in March 2018, ended 0-0. Earlier, Notts County won 4-2 at Adams Park in August 2017 and 1-0 at home in March 2017. Historically, Notts County have had the upper hand, but the teams have not met since 2018, so current form is more relevant.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the League 1 overall standings, indicating both are in the lower half. Wycombe Wanderers are ranked 8th in the away standings with 7 points from 4 away games (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Notts County are not listed in any top rankings, suggesting they are struggling near the bottom. This gives Wycombe a slight edge in terms of league standing.

Win Probability: Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County Prediction

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities: Wycombe Wanderers 52%, draw 26%, Notts County 22%. The bookmakers' odds (home 2.00, draw 3.70, away 3.95) imply a 48.85% home win chance after removing the margin. We have adjusted this upward due to Wycombe's home advantage and Notts County's poor league form, despite the historical head-to-head favoring the visitors. Therefore, Wycombe Wanderers are the most likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Wycombe Wanderers as the favorites, with odds ranging from 1.88 to 2.00 for a home win. The draw is priced between 2.22 and 3.70, and a Notts County away win between 3.40 and 4.00. Based on the stats, our prediction is a Wycombe Wanderers victory, but a draw cannot be ruled out given the teams' recent stalemates. For betting tips, the home win offers value if you believe in the form advantage, while the under 2.5 goals market may also appeal given Notts County's scoring struggles.