Nouadhibou - Nouakchott Academie prediction 10 October 2026

The Nouadhibou vs Nouakchott Academie prediction for this Mauritania Division 1 clash on Oct 10, 2026, at 20:50 points to a home win. Based on league positions, unbeaten home record, and head-to-head edge, Nouadhibou enters as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while the draw sits at 30% and an away win at 20%.

Team Form

Nouadhibou's last five results show a mixed but solid run (D, W, W, L, W). The only loss came away at Nouakchott Kings (3-2), but they bounced back with a 1-0 home win over Inter Nouakchott and a 2-1 cup victory against Pompier. Most recently, they drew 1-1 at Vipers SC in the CAF Champions League, proving they can compete on the road.

Nouakchott Academie's recent form reads W, D, W, W, D. They beat ASC Snim 2-1 at home, drew 0-0 at Pompier, and earlier secured a 2-0 home win over Inter Nouakchott. Their away draw at Nouakchott Kings (2-2? Actually they won 2-1 away, so the draw was vs Pompier) shows resilience, but they have drawn two of their last five, indicating a tendency to share points.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met twice in recent Division 1 history. Nouadhibou holds a slight edge with 1 win and 1 draw, no losses. The most recent encounter on Feb 10, 2026, saw Nouadhibou win 2-1 away at Nouakchott Academie. The previous meeting on Dec 31, 2025, ended in a 0-0 stalemate at Nouadhibou's ground. The H2H record suggests tight contests, but Nouadhibou has yet to lose.

League Table Positions

Nouadhibou finished the regular season top of the Division 1 table with 58 points from 26 matches (17 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses). They scored 49 goals and conceded only 15. At home, they were unbeaten: 8 wins and 5 draws in 13 games, with a goal difference of +18 (24 scored, 6 conceded).

Nouakchott Academie placed 5th with 39 points (10 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses). Their away record shows 4 wins, 7 draws, and just 2 losses in 13 trips, scoring 11 and conceding 7. That defensive solidity on the road explains why bookmakers see a draw as a real possibility.

Win Probability: Nouadhibou or Nouakchott Academie?

After analyzing odds, form, H2H, and home/away stats, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• Nouadhibou win: 50% – The league leaders are unbeaten at home and have a superior squad depth. Their only H2H win came away, and they rarely drop points at their own stadium.
• Draw: 30% – Nouakchott Academie's away record (7 draws in 13 games) and the 0-0 H2H at this venue make a stalemate a credible result.
• Nouakchott Academie win: 20% – Despite their resilience, they have never beaten Nouadhibou and face the strongest home side in the league.

Nouadhibou has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Nouakchott Academie has a 20% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' 1X2 odds for this match are: home win at 2.25, draw at 1.95, away win at 6.25. The low draw odds reflect the visitors' ability to grind out results on the road. However, based on the stats, Nouadhibou's home fortress and the head-to-head advantage tilt the prediction toward a home victory. Our Nouadhibou vs Nouakchott Academie prediction is a home win, but with a draw as a live insurance option for bettors.