Partizan Belgrade - Novi Pazar prediction 11 October 2026

Partizan Belgrade vs Novi Pazar prediction for the SuperLiga clash on October 11, 2026, at 16:00. Based on our analysis, Partizan Belgrade has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Novi Pazar has a 25% chance. Bookmakers favor the home side, but recent form suggests a tighter contest.

Team Form

Partizan Belgrade's recent form has been poor, with just one win in their last five matches (W1, D1, L3). They lost 2-3 at home to Rodina Moscow, drew 4-4 away at Radnik Surdulica, lost 2-3 at home to Vojvodina, lost 1-2 away at Crvena Zvezda, and beat OFK Beograd 3-1 at home. Over these five games, Partizan scored 12 goals and conceded 13. Novi Pazar, on the other hand, have been more stable, recording one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five (W1, D3, L1). They drew 2-2 at home with Zemun, drew 1-1 away at Cukaricki, beat Zeleznicar Pancevo 2-0 at home, drew 1-1 at home with FK Macva Sabac, and lost 0-1 away at Radnik Surdulica. Novi Pazar scored 6 goals and conceded 5 in that period.

Head-to-Head Record

Partizan Belgrade have dominated this fixture historically, winning 13 of the 16 meetings, with no draws and 3 wins for Novi Pazar. The last five encounters saw Partizan win four times: 2-1 (May 2026), 3-2 (Apr 2026), 2-0 (Nov 2025), and 3-2 (Mar 2025). Novi Pazar’s only recent win was a 2-1 home victory in May 2025.

League Table Positions

In the SuperLiga standings, Novi Pazar sit 8th with 13 points from 10 games (3W,4D,3L, goals 10:11), while Partizan Belgrade are 11th with 8 points from 9 games (2W,2D,5L, goals 17:19). Partizan have struggled at home, failing to make the top 8 in the home table, and Novi Pazar’s away form has also been modest, outside the top 8 in the away standings.

Win Probability: Partizan Belgrade or Novi Pazar?

Based on the odds, head-to-head record, recent form, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Partizan Belgrade win – 45%, draw – 30%, Novi Pazar win – 25%. The bookmakers’ odds (1.78 home, 4.03 draw, 4.12 away) imply a 53% chance for Partizan, but their current poor form and low league position reduce that likelihood. The head-to-head dominance still gives them an edge, but Novi Pazar’s relative stability and the high number of draws in their recent matches increase the chances of a stalemate. Overall, Partizan are the more likely winners, but the match is far from a sure thing.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds are 1.78 for a Partizan Belgrade win, 4.03 for a draw, and 4.12 for a Novi Pazar victory. Bookmakers clearly see Partizan as the favorite, but the value may lie in the draw or away win given the form discrepancy. Our prediction: Partizan Belgrade to win, but with low confidence. A draw is a strong possibility.