CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves - Nueva Chicago Reserves prediction 1 October 2026

The CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves vs Nueva Chicago Reserves prediction for October 1, 2026, points towards a tightly contested Primera Nacional. Reserve League fixture. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and available odds, Nueva Chicago Reserves enters this match as the slight favorite with a 42% win probability, while the hosts have a 28% chance and a draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves are struggling for consistency, having failed to win any of their last five matches. Their recent results show three draws and two losses (L, D, L, D, D). In their most recent outing on Sep 23, they fell to a 1-0 away defeat against Chacarita Juniors Reserves. At home, they have been held to draws against Club Almagro Reserves (1-1) and suffered a 0-2 loss to Tristan Suarez Reserves, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Nueva Chicago Reserves have also shown mixed form with two losses, two draws, and one win in their last five (L, L, W, D, D). They are coming off a 0-1 home loss to CA Mitre Santiago Del Estero Reserve on Sep 24. However, their away form includes a 2-2 draw at Agropecuario Reserves and a 0-1 loss at CA San Miguel Reserves, suggesting they can be competitive on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is limited to one previous encounter. In that match, played on Aug 27, 2025, Nueva Chicago Reserves secured a convincing 2-0 away victory against CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves. This gives the away side a psychological edge and a 100% winning record in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Neither CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves nor Nueva Chicago Reserves appear in the provided top 12 of the overall, home, or away league standings. This suggests both teams are positioned in the lower half of the Primera Nacional. Reserve League table, making this a crucial match for both sides to climb the rankings.

Win Probability: CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves or Nueva Chicago Reserves?

Based on the available data, the calculated win probabilities are: CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves 28%, Draw 30%, and Nueva Chicago Reserves 42%. This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (home win at 3.10, draw at 2.00, away win at 2.75) to establish a baseline, then adjusts for Nueva Chicago Reserves' superior head-to-head record and slightly better recent form. The high probability of a draw reflects both teams' recent records, with CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves drawing three of their last five and Nueva Chicago Reserves drawing two of their last five.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this match. One bookmaker prices a home win and an away win identically at 3.10, with the draw as the most likely outcome at a short 2.00. Another bookmaker sees CA Estudiantes Caseros Reserves as the favorite at 2.38, with the draw at 3.00 and an away win at 2.75. Based on the stats, the value may lie in the draw or an away win for Nueva Chicago Reserves, who won the only previous H2H meeting 2-0. Our prediction is a low-scoring match with a double chance favoring Nueva Chicago Reserves or a draw.