Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Maipu prediction 5 October 2026

The Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu prediction points towards a closely contested Primera Nacional fixture on Oct 5 at 21:00. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Deportivo Maipu enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Nueva Chicago holds a 35% chance and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

Nueva Chicago's recent form has been inconsistent, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 away victory against Club Almagro on Sep 27. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 at home to Patronato Parana and suffered a 1-0 defeat at CA Colegiales. At home, they managed a 1-0 win over Quilmes but lost 2-0 at CA Ferrocarril Midland.

Deportivo Maipu shows a more resilient pattern with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five. They secured a 1-0 home win against Temperley on Sep 27. Before that, they played out three consecutive draws: 1-1 with Gimnasia Jujuy, 2-2 at Club Almagro, and 0-0 with Patronato Parana. Their only recent defeat was a 1-0 loss at CA Colegiales.

Head-to-Head Record

Deportivo Maipu has dominated this fixture historically, winning three of the four encounters. Nueva Chicago has managed just one victory, with no draws between the sides. The most recent meeting on May 17 saw Deportivo Maipu win 1-0 at home. Nueva Chicago's sole win came on Oct 11, 2021, a 2-0 away success. The only previous match at Nueva Chicago's ground ended in a 2-1 win for Deportivo Maipu on Jun 17, 2021.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the overall league standings, suggesting both are mid-to-lower table sides. The available table data shows Ferro Carril Oeste leading with 61 points. The absence of both Nueva Chicago and Deportivo Maipu from the provided standings highlights their struggles this season, making this a crucial match for both to climb the table.

Win Probability: Nueva Chicago or Deportivo Maipu?

After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities are calculated as follows: Nueva Chicago has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Deportivo Maipu has a 40% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (home: 2.40, draw: 2.16, away: 3.60), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted for Deportivo Maipu's superior head-to-head record (3 wins to 1) and slightly more consistent recent form. Deportivo Maipu is therefore more likely to win, but the match is expected to be competitive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an open contest. The best available odds are 2.64 for a Nueva Chicago win, 2.82 for the draw, and 3.50 for a Deportivo Maipu victory. The variation in odds—some books have the home win as low as 2.25—reflects uncertainty. Based on the stats, the value may lie with the away side. Our prediction: Deportivo Maipu to win, but a draw is a strong possibility given their recent run of stalemates.