St Ives Town - Nuneaton Town prediction 28 September 2026

This St Ives Town vs Nuneaton Town prediction looks ahead to the Northern Division One match on Sep 28, 2026 at 19:45. Nuneaton Town is the favourite with a win probability of 40%, while the draw and a home win are both at 30%.

Team Form

St Ives Town's last five matches: W, L, W, D, D. They beat Corby Town 3-1 at home, lost to Fakenham Town 0-2 away in the FA Cup, edged Sutton Coldfield Town 1-0 at home, drew 0-0 with Stratford Town, and finished with a 2-2 draw at Worcester City. The home side has kept two clean sheets in that run and is difficult to beat on their own ground.

Nuneaton Town's recent form reads W, W, L, D, W. A 5-0 home thrashing of Grantham Town was followed by a 2-1 win at Shepshed Dynamo, a 0-1 home loss to Wellingborough Town, a 1-1 draw at Lincoln United in the FA Trophy, and a 3-2 home victory over Coleshill Town. The visitors have scored 11 goals in five games but have conceded in four of them.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met eight times, with four wins apiece and no draws. The most recent clash, in January 2024, saw St Ives Town win 3-0 at home. Earlier meetings were dominated by the home team: Nuneaton Town recorded victories of 6-2, 4-0 and 3-0 when hosting. Overall, the head-to-head is perfectly balanced, but St Ives Town have won the last home encounter.

Win Probability: St Ives Town or Nuneaton Town?

Using the available odds as a base and adjusting for team form and head-to-head, we calculate the following outcome probabilities: St Ives Town win – 30%, draw – 30%, Nuneaton Town win – 40%. The initial implied probabilities from bookmaker odds (normalised to remove the margin) were roughly 24% for a home win, 31% for the draw, and 45% for an away win. St Ives Town's solid recent home record and their 3-0 head-to-head win last time out at this venue warrant a 6% upward adjustment for the hosts, while Nuneaton Town's away form – only one win in their last two road games – trims their chance slightly. Nuneaton Town remains the more likely winner, but the match is finely poised.

St Ives Town vs Nuneaton Town Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds range from 3.60 to 4.00 for a St Ives Town win, 2.50 to 3.90 for the draw, and 1.73 to 2.15 for a Nuneaton Town away victory. The market clearly sees Nuneaton as the favourite. Based on the stats, a Nuneaton Town win is the most probable single outcome, but the draw is a very realistic option given the home side's resilience. A low-scoring contest or a narrow away win are the most likely scenarios.