Yarud Mariupol - Nyva Ternopil prediction 5 October 2026

The Yarud Mariupol vs Nyva Ternopil prediction for this Persha Liga fixture on Oct 5, 2026, points to a home advantage. Yarud Mariupol enter the match as favorites with a 45% win probability, while Nyva Ternopil hold a 25% chance of an away victory. The draw is rated at 30%, reflecting a competitive contest at 13:30 local time.

Team Form

Yarud Mariupol have shown mixed results lately, recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. Their most recent match was a 1–1 draw away at Oleksandria on Sep 27. Before that, they beat Polissya Zhytomyr 2 (2–1) and Probiy Gorodenka (2–0), lost to Zorya Lugansk (0–2) in the Cup, and drew 1–1 with FC Kulykiv. The team has scored in four of those five games, showing consistent attacking threat.

Nyva Ternopil are struggling for consistency with one win, two draws, and two defeats in the same period. They drew 0–0 at home to Agrobiznes Volochisk on Sep 27, won 3–1 at Viktoria Nikolaevka, lost 1–2 to Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk, fell 0–1 at FC Chernihiv, and drew 1–1 at Metalist Kharkiv. Away from home, they have been hard to beat, losing only twice in seven road games this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between these sides have been evenly contested. Nyva Ternopil won twice, Yarud Mariupol won twice, and one match ended in a draw. The most recent clash on May 9, 2026, saw Yarud Mariupol secure a convincing 3–0 away win. Earlier encounters include a 2–0 Nyva Ternopil victory in October 2025 and a 1–0 away win for Nyva Ternopil in May 2025. The overall goal trend shows both teams finding the net in three of those five matches.

League Table Positions

Yarud Mariupol sit 7th in the Persha Liga standings with 14 points from 9 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Nyva Ternopil are 12th with 10 points from 9 games (2 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). Notably, Nyva Ternopil boast the 3rd-best away record in the division, collecting 9 points from 7 road trips (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), which underlines their resilience on the road despite the league position gap.

Win Probability: Yarud Mariupol or Nyva Ternopil?

Based on the available data, the calculated win probabilities are: Yarud Mariupol 45%, Draw 30%, Nyva Ternopil 25%. The bookmakers' odds (home 1.88, draw 2.00, away 3.95) imply a tight match, and after normalizing for the margin, the home side holds a slight edge. Yarud Mariupol’s superior overall form, home advantage, and the 3–0 win in the last head-to-head meeting tilt the balance. However, Nyva Ternopil’s strong away performances and the even historical record keep the draw and away win probabilities significant. Yarud Mariupol are the more likely winners, but the match is far from one-sided.

Yarud Mariupol vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers have priced Yarud Mariupol as the favorites with odds around 1.88 for a home win. The draw is offered at 2.00, while an away victory for Nyva Ternopil pays 3.95. These odds reflect the expectation of a close contest. Our prediction, based on the stats, leans towards a home win, but the value may lie in the draw market given Nyva Ternopil’s ability to grind out results on the road. A 1–0 or 2–1 scoreline in favor of Yarud Mariupol appears the most likely outcome.