Criacao Shinjuku - Okinawa SV prediction 27 September 2026

The Criacao Shinjuku vs Okinawa SV prediction for September 27, 2026, points to a tight J4 League contest where the home side holds a slight edge. Based on recent form, head-to-head history, and league positions, Criacao Shinjuku enters this match with a 38% win probability, while Okinawa SV sits at 32%, and the draw is estimated at 30%.

Team Form

Criacao Shinjuku's last five matches show three wins, one draw, and one loss (D, W, W, W, L). In the league, they kept three consecutive clean sheets with 1-0 victories over Maruyasu Okazaki, Vonds Ichihara, and Yokogawa Musashino FC, before a goalless draw at Azul Claro Numazu FC. The only recent defeat came in the League Cup against YSCC Yokohama (1-4). Defensive solidity has been key.

Okinawa SV also posted three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five (W, W, D, L, W). They scored 12 goals in that span, including a 4-1 away win at ReinMeer Aomori FC and a 2-1 home success over Tiamo Hirakata. However, they conceded in four of those five matches, suggesting vulnerabilities at the back.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met five times, with Criacao Shinjuku winning three and Okinawa SV two. No draws have occurred. At this venue, Criacao Shinjuku won two of three encounters, most recently a 1-0 victory on August 30, 2025. The head-to-head data suggests a narrow home advantage.

League Table Positions

In the J4 League standings, Okinawa SV sits 7th with 43 points (12 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses), while Criacao Shinjuku is 11th with 33 points (8 wins, 9 draws, 12 losses). The 10-point gap reflects Okinawa's stronger overall campaign, but Criacao's recent form has closed the gap in performance levels.

Win Probability: Criacao Shinjuku or Okinawa SV?

Criacao Shinjuku has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Okinawa SV has a 32% chance. This calculation is based on the teams' recent form (both with three wins in five), the head-to-head record favoring the home side at this stadium, and the league table gap that gives Okinawa a slight quality edge. Home advantage and Criacao's defensive run tip the balance narrowly in their favour, but the match is too close to call with high confidence.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds are not available for this fixture at the time of writing. Based on the stats, the most likely outcomes are a narrow home win or a draw. Criacao Shinjuku's ability to grind out 1-0 results makes them a marginal favourite, but Okinawa SV's attacking threat ensures the visitors cannot be discounted. A low-scoring affair is probable, with under 2.5 total goals a realistic expectation.