Oleksandria - Lokomotiv Kyiv prediction 11 October 2026

The Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv prediction for the Persha Liga fixture on October 11, 2026, tips Oleksandria as the clear favorite. With a 63% win probability, they are expected to dominate at home against a Lokomotiv Kyiv side that has just a 14% chance. The match kicks off at 11:00 local time.

Team Form

Oleksandria come into this match after a 2–0 away win over FC Kolos Kovalivka 2, following a 1–1 home draw with Yarud Mariupol and a 0–1 loss at Agrobiznes Volochisk. Their last five results (W-D-L-W-D) also include a cup draw at Probiy Gorodenka. At home in the league, Oleksandria are unbeaten in five matches (3 wins, 2 draws) and have conceded just two goals – a defensive record that strongly supports the high win probability.

Lokomotiv Kyiv’s last five matches show a D-W-W-W-L pattern: a 3–3 home draw with Polissya Zhytomyr 2, a 2–0 away win against Probiy Gorodenka, home victories over FC Kulykiv (1–0) and Poltava FC (2–1), and a 0–1 away loss to FC Kolos Kovalivka 2. Their away league record stands at one win, two draws, and one loss from four trips, with four goals scored and three conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

No previous meetings exist between Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv. The head-to-head record is 0 home wins, 0 draws, and 0 away wins, making this the first official clash between the two Persha Liga sides.

League Table Positions

Oleksandria sit 2nd in the Persha Liga table with 19 points from 10 games (5 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 15 goals scored, 7 conceded). Lokomotiv Kyiv are 10th with 13 points (3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, 12 goals scored, 12 conceded). The six-point gap is backed by home/away splits: Oleksandria rank 3rd in the home table (11 points from 5 unbeaten games, 7–2 goals), while Lokomotiv are 8th in the away standings (5 points from 4 games, 4–3 goals).

Win Probability: Oleksandria or Lokomotiv Kyiv?

Normalizing the bookmakers’ 1X2 odds (1.47 – 3.75 – 6.30) gives Oleksandria roughly a 61.5% chance, the draw 24.1%, and Lokomotiv Kyiv 14.4%. Because Oleksandria are unbeaten at home and second in the league while Lokomotiv sit mid‑table, we adjust the probabilities to: Oleksandria 63%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Kyiv 14%. All three outcomes sum to 100%. Oleksandria are clearly the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set Oleksandria as the favorite at 1.47 for a home win. A draw is priced at 3.75, and an away win for Lokomotiv Kyiv pays 6.30. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is a home victory. Our prediction: Oleksandria to win.