Oleksandria - Yarud Mariupol prediction 27 September 2026

The Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol prediction for this Persha Liga fixture on September 27, 2026, at 12:00 points towards a home victory. Based on the available stats and odds, Oleksandria has a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Yarud Mariupol has an 18% chance. Oleksandria enters this match as the clear favorite, backed by a strong home record and superior league standing.

Team Form

Oleksandria's recent form shows a solid run of results. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded three wins, two draws, and zero losses (W, D, D, W, W in their last five, reading from oldest to newest: W, D, D, W, L). Their most recent outing was a 1-0 away defeat to Agrobiznes Volochisk on Sep 20. Prior to that, they secured a 1-0 home win against Viktoria Nikolaevka and a 1-1 away draw against Probiy Gorodenka in the Cup. The team has been defensively resilient, keeping three clean sheets in their last five matches.

Yarud Mariupol also comes into the game with positive recent form, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five (W, W, L, D, W). They are coming off a 2-1 home victory against Polissya Zhytomyr 2 on Sep 20. Their away form has been particularly impressive, with a 2-0 win at Probiy Gorodenka and a 3-1 win at Lokomotiv Kyiv in their last two league matches on the road. However, a 2-0 home cup loss to Zorya Lugansk shows some vulnerability against stronger opposition.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no recorded head-to-head history between Oleksandria and Yarud Mariupol. This will be the first competitive meeting between the two sides, making form and league position the primary indicators for this match.

League Table Positions

Oleksandria sits 3rd in the Persha Liga overall standings with 15 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 12 goals and conceded 6. At home, they are even more formidable, ranked 2nd with 10 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), scoring 6 and conceding just 1.

Yarud Mariupol is 7th in the overall table with 13 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses), with 11 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their away record is strong, ranked 5th with 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). While Mariupol's away form is a threat, Oleksandria's near-perfect home defensive record gives them a significant edge.

Win Probability: Oleksandria or Yarud Mariupol?

After analyzing the data, the win probabilities for this match are: Oleksandria win: 58%, Draw: 24%, Yarud Mariupol win: 18%. This calculation uses the available 1X2 odds as a base (home: 1.60, draw: 3.60, away: 4.90), which were normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The implied probabilities were then adjusted to account for Oleksandria's superior league position (3rd vs 7th), their dominant home form (2nd in home table, 1 goal conceded in 4 games), and the lack of any H2H advantage for the away side. While Yarud Mariupol's away record is respectable, the statistical weight heavily favors a home win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced Oleksandria as the clear favorite with odds of 1.60 for a home win. The draw is available at 3.60, and an away win for Yarud Mariupol is at 4.90. Based on the stats, Oleksandria's rock-solid home defense should be the deciding factor. The prediction is a home win for Oleksandria, likely with a low total of goals, given both teams' recent defensive performances and the high stakes in the top half of the Persha Liga table.