Olimpia Elblag - Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki prediction 26 September 2026

The Olimpia Elblag vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki prediction for the May 30, 2026 III Liga match points to an away victory. Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki enters the game as the clear favorite, holding a 50% win probability based on recent form, head-to-head record, and league standings. Olimpia Elblag will look to use home advantage, but their chances are estimated at just 20%, with a draw rated at 30%.

Team Form

Olimpia Elblag's recent form is poor. In their last five matches, they have recorded two draws and three losses (L, D, L, D, L). Their only home fixture in this run ended in a 2-3 defeat to Znicz Biala Piska. The team has struggled to find wins, failing to secure a victory in five attempts.

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki has shown slightly better form, with one win, two draws, and two losses (D, L, W, L, D). Their away results include a 2-2 draw at Wisla Plock II and a 1-3 loss at Mlawianka Mlawa. The win came at home against Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (2-0).

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting between these sides (excluding the current fixture) took place in November 2025, when Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki won 5-2 away at Olimpia Elblag. That result gives Lechia a strong psychological edge. Overall, the head-to-head record shows one win for the away side and one draw (the draw being the current match).

League Table Positions

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki sits 9th in the III Liga overall table with 46 points from 33 matches (13 wins, 7 draws, 13 losses). In the home standings, they are 8th with 24 points from 16 games. Olimpia Elblag does not appear in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating a lower league position and a weaker campaign. The gap in points and ranking reinforces Lechia's status as the stronger side.

Win Probability: Olimpia Elblag or Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

Based on all available data, the win probabilities are as follows:

• Olimpia Elblag win: 20%
• Draw: 30%
• Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki win: 50%

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki is the more likely winner due to a superior league position, better recent form, and a convincing head-to-head away victory. Olimpia Elblag's home advantage is not enough to offset their poor run of results and lower table standing. The draw probability is significant because both teams have recorded draws in recent matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this match are not currently available from bookmakers. However, based on the stats, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki is the clear favorite. The prediction for this fixture is an away win, but a draw remains a realistic outcome given the form of both sides. Punters should consider the away win or a draw no bet option when odds are released.