Once Caldas - Alianza Petrolera prediction 28 October 2026

Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera prediction: Once Caldas host Alianza Petrolera at Palogrande in Manizales on Oct 28 at 23:00 UTC in Colombia's Primera A. Based on the odds, home form, and league table, Once Caldas are the favorite with a 54% win probability.

Team Form

Once Caldas come into this match with recent results of D, D, W, D, W. Their last five Primera A matches include a 1-1 draw with Deportivo Pereira on Oct 25, a 1-1 draw with Club Deportivo Los Millonarios on Oct 21, a 2-0 away win over EDP Independiente Medellin on Oct 18, a 0-0 draw with Club Deportivo Los Millonarios on Oct 14, and a 1-0 win over Llaneros FC on Oct 10.

• Once Caldas last five: D, D, W, D, W
• Alianza Petrolera last five: W, W, D, L, W

Alianza Petrolera are also in decent form with three wins in their last five. They beat Inter Bogota FC 1-0 on Oct 25, won 1-0 away at Deportivo Pasto on Oct 20, drew 2-2 with Rionegro Aguilas on Oct 10, lost 3-1 at Deportivo Cali on Oct 3, and won 2-1 at Jaguares de Cordoba on Sep 27.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Once Caldas and Alianza Petrolera shows 4 wins for Once Caldas, 11 draws, and 8 wins for Alianza Petrolera. The last five meetings produced four draws and one Once Caldas win. For example, Once Caldas won 1-0 in the Cup on Sep 10, 2026, and the next two matches were 0-0 draws in both Cup and Primera A.

• Once Caldas wins: 4
• Draws: 11
• Alianza Petrolera wins: 8

League Table Positions

Once Caldas are 5th in the Primera A overall table with 33 points from 19 matches (8 wins, 9 draws, 2 losses). At home, Once Caldas rank 4th with 21 points from 10 matches (6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). Alianza Petrolera are not listed in the supplied standings table.

Win Probability: Once Caldas or Alianza Petrolera?

Who will win? Based on the available odds, form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the win probability is: Once Caldas 54%, draw 32%, Alianza Petrolera 14%. The total is 100%.

The five 1X2 bookmaker odds imply a strong home lean. Normalizing the inverse odds removes the bookmaker margin and gives a base of about 53% for Once Caldas, 33% for the draw, and 13% for Alianza Petrolera. We adjust slightly to 54%, 32%, and 14% because of Once Caldas's 4th-ranked home record and the high number of head-to-head draws.

Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction: Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Once Caldas as the favorite. The available 1X2 odds range from 1.42 to 1.46 for a Once Caldas win, 2.28 to 2.37 for the draw, and 5.50 to 6.40 for an Alianza Petrolera win.

Based on the stats, the most likely single outcome is a Once Caldas win, but the head-to-head record shows draws are very common in this fixture. For betting tips, the data suggests a home win or draw is the safer angle, while Alianza Petrolera's high away odds reflect their lower win probability.