Orlando Pride Women - San Diego Wave Women prediction 3 October 2026

The Orlando Pride Women vs San Diego Wave Women prediction for the NWSL Women match on Oct 3, 2026, points to San Diego Wave Women as the favorite with a 42% win probability. Orlando Pride Women have home advantage but sit 12th in the league, while San Diego are flying high in 2nd place. Based on the latest odds and team form, the visitors are the more likely winners.

Team Form

Orlando Pride Women have been inconsistent in their last five matches, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses (W, L, D, W, L). They started this run with a 3-1 away win at Bay FC Women on Sep 27, but then suffered a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Portland Thorns Women. A 2-2 draw at Kansas City Women was followed by a 3-1 home victory over Houston Dash Women, before a 1-2 home loss to Utah Royals FC Women. At home, Orlando have lost two of their last three, which is a concern.

San Diego Wave Women, on the other hand, are in excellent form with four wins in their last five outings (W, W, W, L, W). They secured a 2-0 away win at Racing Louisville Women on Sep 25, then beat Kansas City Women 2-0 and North Carolina Courage Women 2-1 at home. The only blip was a 0-1 away loss at Seattle Reign FC Women, but they bounced back with a 3-2 home win against Racing Louisville Women. Their away record this season is strong, with 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 12 road games.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met just once before, on May 25, 2026, in the NWSL Women. On that occasion, Orlando Pride Women won 1-0 away at San Diego Wave Women. That result gives Orlando a psychological edge, but it is a small sample size and San Diego have improved significantly since then.

League Table Positions

San Diego Wave Women are 2nd in the NWSL Women table with 48 points from 26 matches (15 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses). They have scored 38 goals and conceded 27. Orlando Pride Women are 12th with 30 points from 25 games (9 wins, 3 draws, 13 losses), having scored 32 and conceded 40. The 18-point gap highlights the gulf in class. San Diego also boast the 4th-best away record in the league, while Orlando’s home form is not among the top eight.

Win Probability: Orlando Pride Women or San Diego Wave Women?

After analyzing the odds, form, head-to-head, and league standings, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Orlando Pride Women win: 22%
• Draw: 36%
• San Diego Wave Women win: 42%

These percentages are derived from bookmaker odds (inverse of the odds, normalized to remove the margin) and then adjusted for recent form and league positions. San Diego’s superior form and higher table position give them the edge, but Orlando’s home advantage and their previous H2H win keep the draw and home win probabilities competitive. Overall, San Diego Wave Women are the most likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match with San Diego Wave Women as the favorite. The average odds are 3.65 for an Orlando Pride Women win, 2.37 for a draw, and 2.28 for a San Diego Wave Women victory. These odds imply a tight contest, with the away side slightly favoured. Based on the stats, our prediction is a San Diego Wave Women win, but a draw is also a strong possibility given the odds. Bettors looking for betting tips may find value in the draw or a low-scoring affair, as both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities at times.