Sevilla - Osasuna prediction 26 October 2026

The Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction for this Primera clash on October 26, 2026, at 20:00 points towards a home advantage for Sevilla. Based on the latest stats, Sevilla has a 48% chance of winning, making them the favorite at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium.

Team Form

Sevilla's recent form is a mixed bag. Their last five matches across all competitions read L, D, L, L, W. A 1-0 win away at Deportivo La Coruna on Sep 16 is their only bright spot, surrounded by heavy defeats to Real Madrid (1-4) and Barcelona (1-3), and a friendly loss to Aston Villa (1-3). They did however manage a 3-3 draw against Levante UD.

Osasuna also arrive with just one win in their last five, sitting at W, L, D, L, L. That victory, a 2-0 home success against Racing Santander on Oct 18, was preceded by a 5-2 thrashing at Real Betis and a 4-0 loss at Atletico Madrid. Their form on the road looks particularly fragile.

Head-to-Head Record

History slightly favors the hosts. In the last 21 meetings, Sevilla have 9 wins, Osasuna have 5, and there have been 7 draws. The last five encounters have been tight: results show a 2-1 Osasuna win in April 2026, a 1-0 Sevilla win in November 2025, another 1-0 Osasuna victory in April 2025, and two 1-1 draws in December 2024 and January 2024. Clearly, these fixtures are often settled by a single goal.

League Table Positions

In the Primera standings, Sevilla are 6th with 14 points from 9 matches (4W, 2D, 3L), while Osasuna are 11th with 11 points (3W, 2D, 4L). Away from home, Sevilla rank 5th with 8 points from 5 trips. Osasuna's home form is decent (8th, 8pts), but their overall away performance data shows they are vulnerable, conceding 18 goals in 9 league games overall.

Win Probability: Sevilla or Osasuna?

Analyzing the data, we assign the following match outcome probabilities: Sevilla has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and Osasuna has a 23% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of the average bookmaker odds, normalized to 100%, and then adjusted for Sevilla's superior league position, their positive away table ranking, and a historical home advantage in this fixture. Osasuna's recent defensive struggles on the road further lower their chances. The most likely outcome is a Sevilla victory, though a draw is a significant possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a competitive game. The best available 1X2 odds show a home win priced around 2.10, a draw at 2.38, and an away win at 4.50. Other bookies have Sevilla as short as 1.75 and Osasuna as long as 5.25, reflecting confidence in the home side. Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction: Based on the stats and the win probability, Sevilla are the more likely winners. The value might lie in the home win, but their inconsistent form makes the low-scoring trend in head-to-head matches a key factor for betting tips on total goals.