NK Varazdin - Osijek prediction 19 September 2026

The NK Varazdin vs Osijek prediction for their HNL clash on Sep 19, 2026 at 15:00 points firmly towards the home side. Based on the latest form, head-to-head dominance, and a near-perfect home record, NK Varazdin has a 50% win probability, making them the clear favorites at Stadion Varteks. Osijek faces an uphill battle with just a 20% chance of victory, while the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

NK Varazdin's recent form has been strong, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. Their last five results: W, D, W, L, W. At home, they have been especially solid, keeping three clean sheets in their last four league matches at Stadion Varteks and beating Rijeka 2-0 and Rudes 2-0. The only blip was a 3-1 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb.

Osijek's form is much more inconsistent. Their last five matches read W, L, L, W, L. Away from home, they have suffered heavy defeats, losing 4-1 at Rijeka and 4-0 at Hajduk Split, although they did manage a 3-0 home win over NK Slaven Belupo. Defensive frailties on the road are a major concern.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors NK Varazdin. In the last four meetings across all competitions, NK Varazdin has won twice and drawn twice, with Osijek yet to record a victory. The most recent encounters were a 2-0 away win for NK Varazdin in April 2026 and a 2-1 home win in February 2026. Two earlier matches ended in draws (1-1 in the Cup and 0-0 in the league). Overall, NK Varazdin has scored 5 goals and conceded just 2 in those four games.

League Table Positions

NK Varazdin sits 3rd in the HNL with 13 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). They have scored 11 goals and conceded only 5. At home, they are even more impressive: 2nd in the home table with 10 points from 4 games, scoring 6 and conceding just 1.

Osijek is right behind in 4th place with 12 points (4 wins, 2 losses), having scored 13 and conceded 9. Their away form places them 2nd in the away standings with 6 points from 4 trips, but they have conceded 9 goals on the road—an average of over two per game. The gap in defensive stability is stark.

Win Probability: NK Varazdin or Osijek?

NK Varazdin has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Osijek has a 20% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of typical bookmaker odds adjusted for the data: NK Varazdin's dominant H2H record (2 wins, 2 draws in the last four), their excellent home form (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 1 goal conceded), and Osijek's poor away defensive record (9 goals conceded in 4 away games). The draw probability is elevated because two of the last four H2H meetings ended level. Osijek's 20% reflects their ability to score but also their vulnerability on the road.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds are not specified in the available data, but all statistical indicators point towards a home win. NK Varazdin's fortress-like home defense and Osijek's travel sickness make the home side the most likely winner. Our NK Varazdin vs Osijek prediction is a home victory, with under 2.5 total goals a possible betting angle given Varazdin's defensive record at Stadion Varteks.