Vitoria Guimaraes B - Pacos Ferreira prediction 11 October 2026

The Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira prediction for October 11, 2026 in Portugal's Tercera Liga points to a closely contested match with Vitoria Guimaraes B holding a slight edge. The game kicks off at 14:00 at the home of Vitoria B, and our analysis gives the hosts a 40% win probability, while the draw stands at 32% and Pacos Ferreira at 28%.

Team Form

Vitoria Guimaraes B have won once, drawn twice, and lost twice in their last five outings. They beat Leca 2-0 at home, shared points in a 0-0 draw with Trofense and a 1-1 stalemate at Fafe, but fell 0-1 at AD Marco 09 and 1-3 at Paredes. The scoring output has been limited, with only two goals in the last three league matches.

Pacos Ferreira are winless in five (three draws, two defeats). They drew 1-1 at home to Sao Joao Ver, 2-2 at Vianense, and 0-0 at home to Fafe in the Cup, while losing 1-4 at home to Varzim and 0-1 at home to Paredes. The away form includes only the 2-2 draw, so they have struggled for victories.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Pacos Ferreira. Across five previous meetings, Pacos Ferreira have won four and drawn one; Vitoria Guimaraes B have yet to win. Notable results include a 4-1 home win for Pacos Ferreira in March 2019 and a 1-0 away win in October 2018. The only draw came in a 0-0 friendly in November 2018. This historical dominance gives Pacos Ferreira a psychological edge, even though current form says otherwise.

League Table Positions

Neither Vitoria Guimaraes B nor Pacos Ferreira appear in the top 12 of the Tercera Liga standings as of the provided data. Their exact league positions and points are therefore not available, but both sit outside the upper portion of the table.

Win Probability: Vitoria Guimaraes B or Pacos Ferreira?

Using bookmaker odds (home 2.62, draw 2.20, away 3.60) as the base and removing the margin, the initial probabilities are 34.3% for a home win, 40.8% for a draw, and 24.9% for an away win. We adjust these numbers to reflect recent form and the head-to-head record. Vitoria Guimaraes B’s home win against Leca and the fact that Pacos Ferreira are winless in five support a higher home chance. However, the head-to-head 4-1-0 in Pacos Ferreira’s favour prevents the away probability from dropping too far.

Final probability assessment: Vitoria Guimaraes B win – 40%, Draw – 32%, Pacos Ferreira win – 28%. Vitoria Guimaraes B are the most likely winners based on current form and home advantage, but the margin is small.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds show a home victory priced at 2.62, a draw at 2.20, and an away win at 3.60. Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely single outcome, with Vitoria B as a close second favourite. Our prediction sides with the hosts due to their slightly stronger recent form and the home pitch, but the high draw probability means a stalemate is a very realistic result. Our Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes B to win, but a draw is a strong alternative.