Parnu JK Vaprus - Paide Linnameeskond prediction 31 October 2026

The Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus prediction for the Meistriliiga match on Sep 16, 2026, at 16:00 points toward a home advantage. Based on odds, head-to-head data, and league form, Paide Linnameeskond is the favorite with a 63% win probability, leaving the draw at 22% and Parnu JK Vaprus at 15%.

Team Form

Paide Linnameeskond’s last five matches show a mixed run: L, W, L, W, L. At the Paide linnastaadion, they recently lost 1-2 to Harju JK Laagri, beat Tammeka Tartu 2-0 away, fell 0-2 to Levadia Tallinn, won 2-1 at Flora Tallinn, and lost 1-4 at Levadia Tallinn in the Cup. At home alone, Paide has won two and lost three of their last five home contests.

Parnu JK Vaprus travel with a recent record of L, W, W, L, D. Their away form includes a 4-0 loss at Levadia Tallinn, a 2-2 draw at Kuressaare, and a 2-3 cup loss at Nomme United. On the road in the league, Parnu have won three, drawn two, and lost eight of 13 away matches, scoring 13 and conceding 30.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record heavily favors Paide Linnameeskond: 20 wins, 9 draws, and only 3 victories for Parnu JK Vaprus. In the last five meetings (all competitions), Paide won three and Parnu two. The most recent clash on Jul 04, 2026, ended 3-1 for Paide at home, continuing their historical home dominance.

League Table Positions

Paide Linnameeskond sits 4th in the Meistriliiga with 45 points from 27 games (13W, 6D, 8L), scoring 43 and conceding 35. Parnu JK Vaprus is 7th with 34 points from 27 matches (10W, 4D, 13L), 37 goals for and 52 against. The 11-point gap and +8 vs -15 goal differences underline the home side’s superiority.

At home, Paide rank 5th (7W, 1D, 5L, 18-14 goals), while Parnu’s away record places them 8th (3W, 2D, 8L, 13-30 goals). The traveling side has struggled defensively on the road, conceding more than two goals per game.

Win Probability: Paide Linnameeskond or Parnu JK Vaprus?

Paide Linnameeskond has a 63% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Parnu JK Vaprus has a 15% chance. The calculation starts from bookmaker odds (average 1.464 home, 3.114 draw, 5.262 away) and adjusts for the massive H2H edge (20-9-3), home advantage (Paide 7-1-5 home, Parnu 3-2-8 away), and league positions. Despite Paide’s inconsistent recent form, their home dominance in this fixture and Parnu’s poor away record make the home side the clear most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Paide Linnameeskond as the favorite: the best available odds average around 1.46 for a home win, 3.11 for the draw, and 5.26 for an away win. Based on the stats, a home victory is the most probable outcome. The match on Sep 16 at Paide linnastaadion points toward Paide Linnameeskond securing all three points, but the draw cannot be completely ruled out given their recent inconsistent home results.