Paide Linnameeskond - Tammeka Tartu prediction 14 October 2026

Paide Linnameeskond vs Tammeka Tartu prediction for the Meistriliiga match on Oct 14, 2026 at 17:00 at Paide linnastaadion. Paide Linnameeskond are the favorite with a 54% win probability; the draw is 25% and Tammeka Tartu are at 21%.

Below we break down team form, head-to-head record, league table positions, odds and a clear match outcome pick.

Team Form

Paide Linnameeskond's recent form sequence is L, W, W, L, W from their last five matches. They lost 0-1 away to Levadia Tallinn on Oct 11, beat Nomme United 3-1 away on Sep 19 and Parnu JK Vaprus 2-0 at home on Sep 16, lost 1-2 at home to Harju JK Laagri on Sep 13, and won 2-0 at Tammeka Tartu on Sep 9. Tammeka Tartu's last five results are W, W, L, L, W. They beat Nomme United 4-0 at home on Oct 10, lost 1-3 at home to JK Nomme Kalju on Sep 20, lost 0-6 away to Levadia Tallinn on Sep 17 and won 3-1 away at Kuressaare on Sep 13.

Head-to-Head Record

Paide Linnameeskond dominate the overall head-to-head with 24 wins, 17 draws and only 6 Tammeka Tartu wins. In the most recent league meeting on Sep 9, 2026, Paide won 2-0 at Tammeka. Tammeka did win 0-1 at Paide on May 1, 2026, but Paide also won 4-1 away on Apr 12, 2026 and 5-0 at home on Oct 18, 2025.

League Table Positions

Paide are 3rd in Meistriliiga with 51 points from 30 matches, four points ahead of 5th-placed Tammeka Tartu on 47 points. Paide's home record is 8 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 14 home games, with 20 goals scored and 14 conceded. Tammeka's away record is 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 15 away games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded.

Win Probability: Paide Linnameeskond or Tammeka Tartu?

The win probability calculation starts from the 1X2 odds. After removing the bookmaker margin, the raw implied probabilities are approximately 48% for Paide, 32% for the draw and 20% for Tammeka. Adjusting for Paide's 24-6 head-to-head edge, their top-three league position and home advantage, the final probabilities are: Paide Linnameeskond 54%, draw 25%, Tammeka Tartu 21%. Total equals 100%.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds are Paide Linnameeskond 1.60–1.65, draw 2.38–2.55 and Tammeka Tartu 3.70–4.33. Bookmakers see Paide as the favorite. Based on the stats, the betting tip is a home win for Paide Linnameeskond. The 1X2 home win is the strongest match outcome pick, while the draw odds around 2.50 can be considered for a value angle given Tammeka's inconsistent away form.