Alianza Lima - Palestino prediction 1 October 2026

This Alianza Lima vs Palestino prediction covers the Friendly Clubs match on Oct 1, 2026 at 02:00. Based on the odds, team form and head-to-head record, Palestino are the most likely winner with a 38% chance, while Alianza Lima sit at 30% and the draw is 32%.

Team Form

Alianza Lima have produced mixed results with one win, two draws and two losses across their last five matches. They beat AD Tarma 2-0 at home on Sep 19, lost 1-2 to Universitario De Deportes on Sep 13, drew 1-1 at Juan Pablo II on Sep 6, lost 0-1 to Deportivo Garcilaso on Aug 30, and drew 1-1 at FBC Melgar on Aug 23. That is just one victory in five outings.

Palestino have been more convincing with three wins and two losses in the same span. Their last five results are a 2-3 home loss to Universidad Catolica on Sep 13, a 2-1 home win over Universidad de Concepcion on Sep 6, a 0-2 away loss to Cobresal on Aug 28, a 1-0 away win at O'Higgins on Aug 24, and a 5-1 home win against Huachipato on Aug 18. The three wins have all produced at least two goals.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is completely one-sided. The database records five meetings between Alianza Lima and Palestino, and Palestino have won all five, with Alianza Lima recording zero wins and zero draws. The scorelines in those meetings include 0-2, 3-0 and 1-2, with the most recent result a 2-1 Copa Libertadores win for Palestino on May 8, 2019. Palestino have also won the previous friendly meeting 2-0 on Jan 28, 2017.

Win Probability: Alianza Lima or Palestino?

The bookmakers' 1X2 odds are Alianza Lima 2.60, draw 2.30 and Palestino 3.50. These odds imply a normalized probability of roughly 34.8% for Alianza Lima, 39.3% for the draw and 25.9% for Palestino before adjusting for form and head-to-head records.

However, Palestino's perfect five-match winning streak in this fixture and their stronger recent form warrant an adjustment. Alianza Lima are listed as the home team, but in this Friendly Clubs match the home advantage is limited, and Palestino have consistently won away in this fixture. Therefore, the final win probability is Alianza Lima 30%, draw 32%, and Palestino 38%. Based on the stats, Palestino are the more likely match winner.

Alianza Lima vs Palestino Prediction: Odds & Final Verdict

Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely single outcome at 2.30, followed by Alianza Lima at 2.60 and Palestino at 3.50. The Alianza Lima vs Palestino prediction based on the stats is a narrow Palestino win or draw. In the 1X2 market, the value leans toward Palestino at 3.50 because of their perfect head-to-head record and their three wins in the last five matches. A straight Palestino win is the selection for this Alianza Lima vs Palestino prediction.