Palmeiras SP - Bahia BA prediction 9 October 2026
Palmeiras SP
Bahia BAPalmeiras SP
Red Bull Bragantino SPPalmeiras SPFluminense RJAtletico Paranaense PRPalmeiras SPFluminense RJPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPCorinthians SPPalmeiras SPBahia BAGremio RSPalmeiras SPLDU QuitoPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPSao Paulo SPPalmeiras SPLDU QuitoBotafogo RJPalmeiras SPSantos SPPalmeiras SPMirassol SPPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPSantos SPPalmeiras SPVasco da Gama RJSantos SPBahia BABahia BAFlamengo RJBahia BAMirassol SPPalmeiras SPBahia BAAtletico Paranaense PRBahia BABahia BARemo PARed Bull Bragantino SPBahia BABahia BAInternacional RSVitoria BABahia BAChapecoense SCBahia BABahia BAVasco da Gama RJFluminense RJBahia BABahia BACorinthians SPAtletico Mineiro MGBahia BABahia BAChapecoense SC- 26MuriloD
- 12KhellvenM
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 15G. GรณmezD
- 42J. LรณpezM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 56ArthurM
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 14Marcelo Lomba
- 3Bruno Fuchs
- 18Maurรญcio
- 11J. Arias
- 32E. Martรญnez
- 19R. Sosa
- 7Felipe Anderson
- 4A. Giay
- 37Fabiano
- 22J. Piquerez
- 50Luis Felipe
- 48Larson
- 4KanuD
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 9A. VรฉlizF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 1RonaldoG
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 14Erick
- 10รverton Ribeiro
- 27Everaldo
- 3Marco Moreno
- 8Caio Alexandre
- 44Marcos Victor
- 23M. Sanabria
- 66Zรฉ Guilherme
- 12Willian Josรฉ
- 15M. Araรบjo
- 17G. Herrera
- 7Ademir
- 7'EventJ. Lรณpez
Palmeiras SPBahia BABahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPBahia BABahia BAPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPBahia BABahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BABahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BABahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPBahia BABahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BAPalmeiras SPBahia BABahia BAPalmeiras SP| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras SP | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo RJ | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61:25 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro MG | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico Mineiro MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42:35 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia BA | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 |
| 8 |  Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo SP | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Red Bull Bragantino SP | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba PR | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38:49 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol SP | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional RS | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians SP | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio RS | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34:44 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo PA | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 |
Palmeiras SP vs Bahia BA Prediction (Oct 9)
The Palmeiras SP vs Bahia BA prediction for the Serie A match on Oct 9, 2026 at Allianz Parque points to a home favorite. Based on the latest stats and odds, Palmeiras SP has a 50% win probability, while Bahia BA sits at 20% and the draw at 30%.
Team Form
Palmeiras SP's last five results show a mixed run: a 0-0 draw at Gremio RS, a 3-2 loss at LDU Quito (Copa Libertadores), a 2-0 home win over Sao Paulo SP, a 1-0 home win against LDU Quito, and a 0-0 draw at Botafogo RJ. That's two wins, two draws, and one defeat, with the defense keeping three clean sheets in that span.
Bahia BA comes into this match in excellent form with four wins from their last five. They lost 2-1 at Atletico Paranaense PR, then beat Remo PA 2-1 at home, won 3-2 at Red Bull Bragantino SP, edged Internacional RS 3-2 at home, and cruised to a 2-0 victory at Vitoria BA. The attack has been firing, scoring 11 goals in those five games.
Head-to-Head Record
The overall H2H record heavily favors Palmeiras SP: 10 wins to Bahia BA's 3, with 14 draws. In the last five meetings, Palmeiras won three and Bahia two. The most recent clash on Apr 5, 2026 ended in a 2-1 away win for Palmeiras. The previous encounter at Allianz Parque saw Bahia win 1-0 in April 2025, so the visitors have shown they can get a result here.
League Table Positions
Palmeiras SP sits 2nd in Serie A with 57 points from 28 matches (16 wins, 9 draws, 3 losses). At home they are 4th, with 9 wins, 3 draws and just 1 loss, scoring 23 and conceding only 9. Bahia BA is 5th overall with 46 points (12 wins, 10 draws, 6 losses) and boasts the 3rd-best away record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, 21 goals scored and 21 conceded on the road.
Win Probability: Palmeiras SP or Bahia BA?
After removing the bookmaker margin from the average odds (home 1.73, draw 2.72, away 5.09) and adjusting for recent form, head-to-head trends, and home advantage, the probabilities are: Palmeiras SP win 50%, draw 30%, Bahia BA win 20%. Palmeiras' strong home defense and higher league position make them the clear favorite, but Bahia's four wins in five games cannot be ignored. The most likely outcome is a home victory, though a draw is a realistic possibility.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Palmeiras SP as the favorite, with average odds of 1.73 for a home win. The draw is priced around 2.72, and an away win for Bahia BA at 5.09. These odds reflect Palmeiras' superior league standing and home form. Based on the stats, the prediction is a Palmeiras SP win, but Bahia BA's recent scoring form suggests both teams could find the net. A 2-1 home victory is a plausible scoreline.
Palmeiras SP vs Bahia BA โ FAQ
- Who will win Palmeiras SP vs Bahia BA?
- Palmeiras SP is the favorite with a 50% win probability, while Bahia BA has a 20% chance and the draw stands at 30%. The home side's strong defensive record and higher league position give them the edge.
- What is the win probability for Palmeiras SP?
- Palmeiras SP has a 50% chance of winning this match. This is based on their 2nd-place league standing, excellent home form (9 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), and historical head-to-head dominance.
- When is the Palmeiras SP vs Bahia BA match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 9, 2026, at 01:30 local time. It will be played at Allianz Parque in Sรฃo Paulo as part of the Brazilian Serie A.
- What are the odds for Palmeiras SP vs Bahia BA?
- The average match odds are 1.73 for a Palmeiras SP win, 2.72 for a draw, and 5.09 for a Bahia BA victory. These prices come from multiple bookmakers and imply a clear home advantage.
- What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras SP and Bahia BA?
- In 27 previous meetings, Palmeiras SP has won 10 times, Bahia BA 3 times, and 14 matches ended in a draw. Palmeiras won the most recent encounter 2-1 away in April 2026.