Palmeiras SP - Corinthians SP prediction 11 October 2026

The Palmeiras SP vs Corinthians SP prediction for the Serie A derby on October 11, 2026, at 21:30 points firmly to a home win. Palmeiras SP enters the match with a 55% win probability, while Corinthians SP has only a 20% chance and the draw sits at 25%. The game at the 43,713-capacity Allianz Parque in São Paulo is a crucial one for both sides.

Team Form

Palmeiras SP are in solid form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings (W-D-L-W-W). On October 9, they edged Bahia BA 1-0 at home. Before that, a 0-0 draw at Gremio RS, a 3-2 loss at LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores, a 2-0 home win over Sao Paulo SP, and a 1-0 home victory against LDU Quito. At Allianz Parque, they have kept three clean sheets in those recent home games and scored in four of the five matches.

Corinthians SP, by contrast, are in a deep slump. Their last five results read L-L-L-L-D: a 2-1 loss at Internacional RS, a 3-1 home defeat to Fluminense RJ, a 1-0 home loss to Estudiantes La Plata, a 2-1 loss at Flamengo RJ, and a 1-1 draw at Estudiantes. They have not won in five matches, conceding 9 goals and scoring only 4. The team looks short on confidence, especially away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two São Paulo giants is almost even. In 46 previous clashes, Palmeiras SP won 15, Corinthians SP won 17, and 14 ended in draws. Looking at the last five meetings, Corinthians hold a slight edge with two wins, two draws, and one loss. The most recent encounter was a 0-0 league draw on April 12, 2026. Palmeiras did win the Campeonato Paulista clash 1-0 in February 2026, but Corinthians knocked Palmeiras out of the Cup in 2025 with a 2-0 away win and a 1-0 home victory.

League Table Positions

Palmeiras SP are flying high in 2nd place in Serie A with 57 points from 28 matches (16 wins, 9 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 47 goals and conceded just 21, the second-best defensive record. At home, they rank 5th with 30 points from 13 games (9 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). Corinthians SP, on the other hand, are nowhere near the top 12. Their poor season leaves them in the lower half of the table, and their away form is not among the league's top eight. The gap in quality and consistency is stark.

Palmeiras SP vs Corinthians SP Prediction: Win Probability

We calculated the win probabilities by starting with the bookmaker odds (1.65 home, 2.20 draw, 5.50 away), removing the margin, and then adjusting for recent form, head-to-head trends, and league positions. The final numbers are:

• Palmeiras SP win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Corinthians SP win: 20%

Palmeiras' home strength (only one loss in 13 home league games) and Corinthians' terrible run (no wins in five, four straight losses) heavily influence the adjustment. Even though the H2H record is close, current momentum gives Palmeiras a clear edge.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are around 1.65 for a Palmeiras SP victory, 2.20 for the draw, and 5.50 for a Corinthians SP win. These odds imply a home win probability of roughly 49% before our adjustments. Based on all the stats, we predict a Palmeiras SP win. The home side’s defensive solidity and Corinthians’ scoring struggles suggest a low-scoring affair, possibly a 1-0 or 2-0 result.