Palmeiras SP Women - Bahia BA Women prediction 5 September 2026

Our Palmeiras SP Women vs Bahia BA Women prediction for this Campeonato Brasileiro A1 Women clash on Sep 05, 2026, gives the home side a 65% win probability. Palmeiras SP Women are clear favorites, backed by a dominant home record and a historical edge in this fixture.

Team Form

Palmeiras SP Women’s last five matches show a strong unbeaten run (D, W, D, W, W). They fired four past Red Bull Bragantino SP Women on Aug 26 and kept clean sheets in wins over Juventude RS Women and Taubate SP Women. The only blip was a goalless draw at Cruzeiro MG Women, but overall they have scored 8 goals and conceded just 2 in those five outings.

Bahia BA Women’s recent form reads D, D, D, W, L. A 3-0 away win at Atletico Mineiro MG Women on Aug 08 was the highlight, but three consecutive draws followed, including a 1-1 home stalemate against Palmeiras SP Women on Sep 01. A 1-0 loss at Ferroviaria SP Women on Aug 02 underlines their inconsistency on the road, with only one win in their last five.

Head-to-Head Record

Palmeiras SP Women have never lost to Bahia BA Women in four competitive meetings (2 wins, 2 draws). The two most recent encounters, both in Bahia’s stadium, ended 1-1 (Sep 01, 2026) and 0-0 (May 02, 2026). When hosting, Palmeiras cruised 3-1 in April 2025 and 3-0 in March 2023. The overall head-to-head stats: Palmeiras SP Women wins 2, draws 2, Bahia BA Women wins 0.

League Table Positions

Going into the match, Palmeiras SP Women sit 3rd in the Campeonato Brasileiro A1 Women with 36 points (10 W, 6 D, 1 L, 32 GF, 11 GA). Bahia BA Women are 6th with 29 points (8 W, 5 D, 4 L, 30 GF, 21 GA). The gap is evident in home/away splits: Palmeiras boast a perfect home record (7 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 26 scored, 5 conceded) – ranking 2nd in the home table. Bahia’s away form is 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 15 scored, 11 conceded – placing them 7th in the away standings.

Win Probability: Palmeiras SP Women or Bahia BA Women?

Based on all available data, the win probabilities are: Palmeiras SP Women 65%, draw 25%, Bahia BA Women 10%. The home side’s flawless home record, superior league position, and unbeaten head-to-head history provide the foundation. Bahia’s recent draws and only one win in five further reduce their chances. The 65% probability for Palmeiras reflects a strong likelihood of a home victory, while the 25% draw accounts for the two recent tied H2H matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available in the current data. Using the calculated probabilities, the implied fair odds for a Palmeiras SP Women win would be around 1.54. This aligns with their status as firm favorites. The match prediction: Palmeiras SP Women to win. Given the head-to-head draws and Bahia’s resilience, a low-scoring home win or a draw cannot be ruled out, but the stats overwhelmingly favor the hosts.