Atromitos - PAOK Thessaloniki prediction 16 September 2026

Our Atromitos vs PAOK Thessaloniki prediction for the Cup match on Sep 16 gives PAOK a clear advantage with a 45% win probability, despite playing away from home. Bookmakers also see PAOK as the favourite, with odds as short as 1.95.

Team Form

Atromitos come into this match in poor form, recording two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five outings (D,D,W,L,L). Most recently, they drew 1-1 away to Iraklis 1908 and at home to Kalamata. Their only win was a 1-0 Cup victory at Panserraikos, but they then lost 2-1 at home to PAOK in the Super League on Aug 30. That defeat highlights their struggle against the Thessaloniki side.

PAOK Thessaloniki’s recent form is inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses (W,L,D,W,L). They beat Aris Thessaloniki 2-0 at home, lost heavily 3-1 at Panathinaikos, played a goalless Cup draw with OFI Crete, beat Atromitos 2-1 away, and lost a UEFA Conference League qualifier 3-2 at Brann. Despite the mixed results, they have won two of their last three domestic matches.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, PAOK have dominated this fixture. In all meetings, Atromitos have won just 6 times compared to PAOK’s 22 victories, with 6 draws. Looking at the last five encounters, PAOK won three (most recently 2-1 on Aug 30, 2026), Atromitos won one (2-0 home in Dec 2025), and one match ended in a 1-1 draw (Jan 2026, Cup). PAOK have won four of the last six head-to-heads.

Win Probability: Atromitos or PAOK?

Based on the betting odds and historical performance, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Atromitos – 16%, Draw – 39%, PAOK Thessaloniki – 45%. These figures are derived from the inverse of bookmaker odds (home 5.50, draw 2.30, away 1.95), normalized to remove the margin, and adjusted slightly for recent form and H2H dominance. PAOK’s superior track record and the fact they already beat Atromitos two weeks ago shift the probability further in their favour.

Therefore, PAOK are the more likely winners, though a draw cannot be ruled out given Atromitos’ two recent stalemates.

Odds & Match Prediction

Leading bookmakers offer the following 1X2 odds: Atromitos win at 5.50, draw at 2.30, and PAOK win at 1.95. These odds imply a clear away favourite. Considering the form, head-to-head record, and the fact that PAOK have lost only once in their last five visits to Atromitos (according to available data), our final prediction is a PAOK victory. A 1–0 or 2–1 scoreline in favour of the visitors looks plausible, but betting on the draw no bet or double chance might be prudent for risk-averse punters.