Vianense - Paredes prediction 10 October 2026

Our Vianense vs Paredes prediction for this Tercera Liga clash on October 10, 2026, at 15:00 local time points to an away-side advantage. Based on the data, Paredes enters the match as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while the draw sits at 35% and home side Vianense holds a 25% chance.

Team Form

Vianense has produced a mixed but mostly positive run in their last five outings (W, W, D, W, L). The home side thrashed CCD Minas Argozelo 8-0 at home, drew 2-2 with Pacos Ferreira in the league, and picked up two away wins – 3-1 over Estrela Calheta FC and 2-1 over Varzim. The only recent defeat came away at AD Marco 09 (0-2). At home in the Tercera Liga, Vianense is unbeaten with one win and one draw, scoring four and conceding two.

Paredes comes into this fixture in excellent shape, with four wins and one loss from the last five matches (W, W, W, W, L). They beat Maria da Fonte 5-1 and Fafe 2-1 at home, won 1-0 away at Varzim and 3-0 away at Ermesinde. The lone setback was a home 1-2 loss to Leca. Away from home in the league, Paredes is perfect: two wins from two, with two goals scored and none conceded. This away solidity makes them a tough opponent.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors Paredes. Out of two previous meetings, Paredes has won both, with Vianense yet to register a win or even a draw. The most recent clash, on Mar 16, 2025, saw Paredes demolish Vianense 5-1 on Vianense's own ground. Earlier, on Nov 30, 2024, Paredes won 2-0 at home. Goal aggregate stands at 7-1 in Paredes' favor, underscoring their dominance in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Paredes sits 2nd in the Tercera Liga with 12 points from 5 matches (4W, 0D, 1L), scoring 8 and conceding 4. Their away form is flawless – 2nd in the away standings with 6 points from two away games, zero goals conceded. Vianense is 8th with 8 points (2W, 2D, 1L), 6 goals scored and 5 allowed. At home, they occupy 7th with 4 points from two games, still unbeaten but with a smaller sample size. The 4-point gap and the away perfection give Paredes a clear edge in the standings.

Win Probability: Vianense or Paredes?

We calculate the win probabilities using the inverse of the odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted for team form, H2H, and league positions. The combined odds from two bookmakers imply base probabilities of around 24.4% for Vianense, 35.7% for the draw, and 39.9% for Paredes. After factoring in Paredes' dominant away form (100% win rate), Vianense's home resilience, and the one-sided H2H, we set the final probabilities at:

• Vianense win: 25%
• Draw: 35%
• Paredes win: 40%

Paredes is the slight favorite, but the draw remains a realistic outcome given Vianense's ability to get results at home. The odds and stats point to an away win as the most likely single result, yet not overwhelmingly so.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers show Paredes as the favorite. One bookmaker prices the home win at 3.95, the draw at 2.02, and the away win at 2.62. Another offers 3.40 for Vianense, 3.25 for the draw, and 1.95 for Paredes. The shorter odds on the away side reflect Paredes' strong league position, perfect away record, and superior H2H history.

Based on the stats, Paredes is the more likely winner, but Vianense's home form cannot be ignored. A draw is also a strong possibility. Looking at the numbers, a Paredes win by a narrow margin appears the most probable outcome, but a 1-1 draw or even a Vianense upset should not be ruled out entirely.