Lazio - Parma prediction 24 October 2026

On October 24, 2026, Lazio faces Parma at Stadio Olimpico in a Serie A match that kicks off at 19:45. Our Lazio vs Parma prediction gives the home side a 64% win probability, spotting Parma just 14% and a draw at 22%. Bookmakers agree, pricing Lazio as a heavy favorite.

Team Form

Lazio enters this match in superb shape. Their last five results read W, W, W, D, W. In their most recent fixture, they dismantled Juventus 3-0 away on October 18. Across these five matches, they’ve scored 12 goals and conceded only 4, keeping three clean sheets. The only slight blemish was a 2-2 home draw with AC Milan on September 12.

Parma’s recent form paints a different picture: L, W, L, D, L. They are coming off a 3-0 defeat at Inter Milan on October 10. In that five-game stretch, they managed just one win (2-1 at home against Genoa) and were also knocked out of the Cup by Cremonese with a 2-0 home loss.

Head-to-Head Record

Lazio has dominated this fixture historically with 13 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 Parma victory in the last 16 meetings. The most recent clash, on April 4, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw at Stadio Olimpico. Before that, Lazio beat Parma 1-0 away on December 13, 2025. The lone Parma win in this dataset came on December 1, 2024, a 3-1 home result. Lazio has not lost at home to Parma in the last five encounters.

League Table Positions

Lazio sits 3rd in the Serie A overall table with 16 points from 6 matches (5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They’ve scored 11 goals and conceded just 4. At home, their record is equally strong: 6th with 7 points from 3 games. Parma is not listed in the top 12 of the overall, home, or away standings, indicating a much lower position and a significant gap in quality compared to Lazio.

Win Probability: Lazio or Parma?

Lazio has a 64% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Parma has a 14% chance. These numbers are derived from the average bookmaker odds (1.45 home / 2.35 draw / 6.24 away), which we stripped of the margin and normalized. Lazio’s perfect away form (three wins from three) and Parma’s abysmal away form (three losses in their last four on the road) reinforce the home favorite’s position. The massive 49-point gap in the standings and a 13-2-1 head-to-head record leave little room for an upset.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced Lazio as short as 1.40 and no longer than 1.49 to win. The draw is available between 2.25 and 4.50 depending on the book, while a Parma victory ranges from 5.75 to 8.60. Based on the stats, Lazio should control this match from the start. Parma’s defensive frailties on the road, combined with Lazio’s scoring consistency, make the home win the standout pick. A correct score bet on 2-0 or 3-0 fits the data, given Lazio’s three clean sheets in five matches and Parma’s blank in their last away game.