Parma - Udinese prediction 28 October 2026

Our Parma vs Udinese prediction for this Oct 28 Serie A clash at the Stadio Ennio Tardini sees Parma as slight favorites with a 36% win probability. Both teams are struggling for form, but the hosts’ home advantage and desperate need for points could be decisive in what promises to be a tight encounter.

Team Form

Parma enter this match in dismal shape. They have lost four of their last five Serie A games, conceding 11 goals in that period. Their most recent outing saw a 2-1 defeat at Lazio on Oct 24. Their only win in this stretch came at home to Genoa (2-1) on Sep 20, but heavy losses to Inter Milan (3-0) and Torino (0-3) highlight serious defensive frailties. The home crowds at the Stadio Ennio Tardini have had little to celebrate, with the team managing just one victory in this run.

Udinese’s form is equally alarming. They have lost four of their last five competitive matches, including a 5-3 thrashing at Inter Milan and a 0-3 home defeat to Lecce. A 1-1 friendly draw with Pogon Szczecin is their only positive result in that sequence. The Friuliani have conceded at least two goals in three of those five games, suggesting they too travel to Parma with a leaky defense.

Head-to-Head Record

History points to a very even fixture. In the last 13 Serie A meetings, there have been 3 Parma home wins, 7 draws, and 3 Udinese away wins. Recent matches have seen Udinese edge the rivalry. Last season, Udinese won 2-0 in Parma on Nov 29, while Parma took a 1-0 victory at Udine on Apr 18. In the 2024-25 season, Udinese won 1-0 at home. The last meeting at this stadium produced a 2-2 draw back in February 2021, underlining how often these sides cancel each other out.

League Table Positions

Neither Parma nor Udinese feature in the provided Serie A standings for the top 12 positions, which means both sides are likely situated in the bottom half of the table. Parma’s last known home results show they have struggled to put together a consistent run, while Udinese’s away form is also absent from the available data. However, the fact that neither team is in contention for European places sets this up as a classic relegation-zone or mid-table scrap, where every point is vital.

Win Probability: Parma or Udinese?

Based on the available data — including recent form, head-to-head stats, and bookmaker odds — we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• Parma win: 36%
• Draw: 36%
• Udinese win: 28%

Parma has a 36% chance of winning, the draw is at 36%, and Udinese has a 28% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (2.95 for a Parma win, 1.98 for a draw, and 2.75 for an Udinese win) as a base, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. We then applied a slight downward adjustment to Udinese’s chances due to their poor away form and Parma’s home advantage. The most likely outcome is a draw, reflecting the historically balanced H2H record and both sides’ current inability to string wins together.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are struggling to separate these two out-of-form sides. The best available odds show a Parma home win at 3.10, a draw as low as 1.98, and an Udinese away victory at 3.15. The short price on the draw is a clear signal: the market expects a very tight game. Our Parma vs Udinese prediction aligns with this view. Based on the stats, the most probable result is a draw, with a low-scoring affair looking likely given both teams’ offensive struggles. Backing the draw or a 'both teams to score — no' market could hold value for betting tips on this fixture.