Tallinna Kalev II - Parnu JK Vaprus II prediction 11 October 2026

The Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II prediction for October 11, 2026, points towards a closely contested Esiliiga B fixture. Kick-off is at 10:30, with bookmakers giving a marginal edge to the home side based on the latest odds. According to our win probability model, Tallinna Kalev II has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Parnu JK Vaprus II sits at 32%.

Team Form

Tallinna Kalev II's recent form has been inconsistent, with their last five matches returning two wins and three losses (W, L, L, W, L). Their most recent outing was a 3-1 away victory against Viljandi Tulevik on October 3, but they suffered a heavy 7-0 defeat to Parnu JK Vaprus II in the reverse fixture on September 6, a result that will be fresh in their minds.

Parnu JK Vaprus II comes into this match with stronger momentum, recording three wins and two losses in their last five games (W, L, L, W, W). They demolished Tallinna JK Legion 12-0 on September 18 and secured a 5-1 away win against the same opponent on August 30, demonstrating significant attacking firepower. However, they have also shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 3 and 4 goals in defeats to Johvi FC Phoenix and FA Tartu Kalev respectively.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, the head-to-head record favors the away side based on the two previous encounters. Parnu JK Vaprus II has one win, while the other match ended in a draw. The most recent clash on September 6, 2026, saw Parnu JK Vaprus II secure a dominant 7-0 home victory. The earlier fixture on June 19, 2026, finished as a 2-2 stalemate, indicating that goals are often a feature when these two teams meet.

League Table Positions

Looking at the Esiliiga B standings, Tallinna Kalev II sits in 9th position with 29 points from 31 games, having won 8 and lost 18. Parnu JK Vaprus II is in a stronger 7th position with 46 points from 30 matches, including 14 wins. The away side also boasts a significantly better goal difference, scoring 95 and conceding 62, compared to Tallinna Kalev II's 63 goals for and 78 against, highlighting a clear performance gap this season.

Win Probability: Tallinna Kalev II or Parnu JK Vaprus II?

Based on the available odds and team statistics, the calculated win probability gives Tallinna Kalev II a 38% chance to win, a draw at 30%, and Parnu JK Vaprus II a 32% chance. While the bookmakers' best prices (2.30 for a home win vs. 2.20 for an away win) show a tight spread, we have adjusted for the massive 7-0 head-to-head result, the away side's superior league position, and stronger recent goal-scoring form. However, the draw probability is also elevated due to the 2-2 result in the other H2H meeting, making this a tricky match to call with a slight lean toward a home upset or a stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering tight odds for this encounter. One market shows a home win at 2.40, a draw at 2.98, and an away win at 2.68. Another lists the home win at 2.30, the draw at a high 4.50, and the away win at 2.20. The discrepancy in the draw odds suggests volatility in the market, but the general trend sees Parnu JK Vaprus II as a very slight favorite. Based on the stats, including Parnu JK Vaprus II's recent 12-0 win and Tallinna Kalev II's 7-0 defeat in the H2H, the visitors have the attacking quality to cause problems, but the home advantage keeps the contest finely balanced. A draw or a narrow win for either side appears the most realistic outcome.