Partick Thistle - Stenhousemuir prediction 24 October 2026

Our Partick Thistle vs Stenhousemuir prediction for the Scottish Championship clash on Oct 24 at 15:00 looks at a tight contest. Based on the stats, Partick Thistle has a 49% chance of winning, while Stenhousemuir holds a 32% probability and the draw is at 19%. Partick Thistle enter as the slight favorite, driven by strong recent form and home advantage.

Team Form

Partick Thistle come into this fixture in excellent shape. Their last five matches show a record of three wins, one draw, and one loss (W, W, W, D, L). The most recent outings include a 1-0 victory away at Ayr United on Oct 16 and a 2-1 win at Livingston on Oct 10. Before the draw with Raith Rovers, they thrashed Arbroath 3-0 at home, indicating strong home performances.

Stenhousemuir's recent form is also solid with three wins, one draw, and one loss (D, L, W, W, W). They were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Raith Rovers on Oct 17 and suffered a 2-0 away defeat at Inverness CT. However, prior to that, they secured wins against Ayr United and Arbroath. Their form is slightly less consistent than the hosts, particularly away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is perfectly balanced. In their two previous meetings, each team has one win, with no draws. Most recently, Stenhousemuir defeated Partick Thistle 1-0 at home in the Championship on Sep 15. Partick Thistle's victory came in the Challenge Cup back in Nov 16, 2019, a 4-1 away win. This limited H2H history suggests a closely matched rivalry where the home team has historically had the edge.

League Table Positions

In the Scottish Championship standings, Stenhousemuir currently sit top of the table with 23 points from 10 games (7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Partick Thistle are close behind in third place with 21 points from 10 matches (6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). Although Stenhousemuir lead the league, Partick Thistle boast an impressive home record, ranked second with 11 points from 5 games and yet to concede a goal at home. Stenhousemuir's away form is strong, ranked second with 10 points from 5 away games. The defensive solidity of Partick Thistle at home will be a key factor.

Win Probability: Partick Thistle or Stenhousemuir?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Partick Thistle win: 49%
• Draw: 19%
• Stenhousemuir win: 32%

Partick Thistle are the more probable winners. The calculation uses the inverse of the bookmaker odds as a base, normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted for Partick Thistle's perfect home defensive record (0 goals conceded) and Stenhousemuir's recent away loss. The head-to-head record is balanced, but the home advantage and superior recent form tip the scales in Partick Thistle's favor. Stenhousemuir's top league position earns them respect, but their chances are dampened by the host's fortress-like home performances.

Odds & Match Prediction

The bookmakers see Partick Thistle as the favorite. The best available odds for the match are: Home win at 1.43, Draw at 2.38, and Away win at 5.90. These odds imply a strong home bias, which aligns with Partick Thistle's unbreached home defense. Stenhousemuir's long odds reflect the difficulty of the task ahead.

Our final prediction: Partick Thistle are the most likely winners based on the stats. Their home form, combined with Stenhousemuir's recent away slip, points towards a home victory, though the visitors' league-leading position suggests a close game could be on the cards.