Radnik Surdulica - Partizan Belgrade prediction 19 September 2026

The Radnik Surdulica vs Partizan Belgrade prediction for September 19, 2026, kicks off at 17:00 CET at the EFBET Stadion in Surdulica. This SuperLiga clash sees Partizan Belgrade as the favorite with a 40% win chance, while Radnik Surdulica holds a 28% probability and a draw sits at 32%.

Team Form

Radnik Surdulica enter the match after a mixed set of results: two draws (1-1 at Zemun, 0-0 vs Crvena Zvezda), a 3-1 home win over Cukaricki Stankom, a heavy 5-1 loss at Zeleznicar Pancevo, and a 1-0 victory against Novi Pazar. At home they remain unbeaten this season with three wins and two draws.

Partizan Belgrade’s recent away record is inconsistent: a 3-2 defeat at Vojvodina, a 2-1 loss at Crvena Zvezda, a 3-1 win at OFK Beograd, a 2-1 UEFA Conference League win over Getafe, and a 3-1 defeat at Mladost Lucani. The last five away results read L-L-W-W-L, showing vulnerability on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Partizan Belgrade dominate this fixture with 19 wins to Radnik Surdulica’s 6, and no draws. The most recent meetings all ended with Partizan wins: 5-0 in May 2026, 3-2 in February 2026, 2-0 in August 2025, 3-0 in a Cup match in March 2025, and 2-1 in February 2024. The head-to-head suggests a clear gulf, but current form adds a layer of unpredictability.

League Table Positions

Radnik Surdulica sit 5th in the overall SuperLiga standings with 13 points from 9 matches (3W, 4D, 2L). At home they are particularly strong – ranked 3rd with 11 points from 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Partizan Belgrade are not in the overall top 12; their away record places them 8th in the away table, collecting only 4 points from 4 away games (1W, 1D, 2L) with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. The clear home advantage could level the playing field.

Win Probability: Radnik Surdulica or Partizan Belgrade?

Based on average bookmaker odds (home 3.65, draw 2.81, away 2.056) and normalized to remove the margin, the raw implied probabilities were home 24.6%, draw 31.9%, away 43.6%. Adjusting for Radnik’s strong home form (unbeaten, 3rd home ranking) and Partizan’s poor away results (1-1-2) as well as the historic H2H dominance of Partizan, we assign:

• Radnik Surdulica win: 28%
• Draw: 32%
• Partizan Belgrade win: 40%

Partizan remains the most likely winner, but the match is far from a foregone conclusion. Radnik’s home resilience makes a draw a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have Partizan Belgrade as the favorite with away win odds ranging from 1.72 to 2.30. The draw is priced between 2.25 and 3.70, and a Radnik Surdulica home win is offered from 3.30 to 3.90. The odds reflect Partizan’s reputation and H2H record, but the wide spread on the draw and home win signals uncertainty. Our analysis suggests the match is tighter than the odds imply – Partizan to win, but with a low margin, and a draw cannot be ruled out. Cautious betting tips favour Partizan on the double chance or under 2.5 goals given Radnik’s defensive home record.