EC Passo Fundo RS - Bento Goncalves RS prediction 16 September 2026

The EC Passo Fundo RS vs Bento Goncalves RS prediction for the Campeonato Gaucho Serie A2 match on September 16, 2026, points to a tight contest with the hosts holding a clear edge. Based on all available data – league standings, form, head-to-head record and odds – EC Passo Fundo RS enters as the favorite with a 45% implied probability of winning, while a draw sits at 35% and an away win for Bento Goncalves RS at 20%.

Team Form

EC Passo Fundo RS come into this match on a mixed run: D, W, L, D, D in their last five. Most recently they drew 1-1 away at Aimore RS on September 13. Their only win in the last four was a 2-0 home success against Gramadense RS on September 9. The loss came at home to SERC Brasil de Farroupilha RS (0-1) on September 6, and they drew twice at GE Bage RS (1-1 on Sep 1 and 0-0 on Aug 26). Overall the team is hard to beat but lacks consistent finishing.

Bento Goncalves RS show a similar pattern: W, D, D, L, D over their last five outings. They were victorious at home against Gramadense RS (3-1) on September 12, then played out draws at SERC Brasil de Farroupilha RS (1-1, Sep 9) and at home versus Pelotas RS (1-1, Sep 5). A 2-1 defeat at Gloria RS on September 1 and a 1-1 home stalemate with GE Bage RS (Aug 22) confirm that draws are the most common result for this side.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head between these clubs is heavily balanced towards draws: 5 stalemates, only 1 home win and 2 away wins across eight encounters. The most recent clash, on June 30, 2025, saw EC Passo Fundo RS win 2-1 at home, reversing a trend where Bento Goncalves RS had won on two of their previous three visits to this ground (1-0 in June 2022 and 2-1 in April 2018). The other recent meeting at Bento’s home (April 2022) finished 1-1. The data indicates that Bento Goncalves RS has historically been a tough opponent for EC Passo Fundo RS, especially in this stadium.

League Table Positions

EC Passo Fundo RS sit 3rd in the Campeonato Gaucho Serie A2 with 27 points from 14 matches (7 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss). They are particularly strong at home: unbeaten in 7 fixtures (4 wins, 3 draws, 10 goals scored, 4 conceded). Bento Goncalves RS are not among the top 12 teams in the league, indicating a significantly lower position and a weaker overall campaign. While their away record is not detailed in the standings, their low ranking suggests they have struggled to collect points on the road.

Win Probability: EC Passo Fundo RS or Bento Goncalves RS?

After normalizing the bookmakers’ odds to remove margins and adjusting for team form, league gap and home advantage, the final outcome probabilities are:

• EC Passo Fundo RS win: 45%
• Draw: 35%
• Bento Goncalves RS win: 20%

The odds initially implied a draw as the most probable result (around 41%), but EC Passo Fundo’s unbeaten home record and 3rd-place standing versus Bento’s bottom-half position shift the balance towards a home win. The high frequency of draws in both clubs’ recent matches and in head‑to‑head history keeps the stalemate as a significant outcome. An away win cannot be ruled out – Bento have won here twice before – but it remains the least likely result given the current season’s dynamics.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average bookmaker odds for the match are: home win 2.46, draw 2.25, away win 4.00. The tight pricing underlines how competitive this fixture is expected to be. Based on the stats, EC Passo Fundo RS are the more probable winners, but a draw would be a very typical result between these two sides. Our prediction: a narrow home win or a deadlock, with the home side’s defensive solidity at this ground likely to be decisive. For betting tips, the double chance home/draw or under 2.5 total goals might offer value given the low-scoring pattern in EC Passo Fundo’s home matches.