Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki - Pelikan Lowicz prediction 10 October 2026

The Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Lowicz prediction for this III Liga match on October 10, 2026, at 13:00 sees the home side as the narrow favorite. Based on odds, form, and league positions, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki has about a 38% chance to win, the draw sits at 38%, and Pelikan Lowicz has a 24% probability.

Team Form

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki enters this fixture with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings (W, W, W, L, D). Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw at Warta Sieradz on October 3. At home, they have won three and lost two in the league this season, scoring 15 and conceding 11. Notably, they put five past Olimpia Zambrow in a 5-0 home win on September 5.

Pelikan Lowicz also shows three wins and one draw in their last five, with the sequence W, L, W, W, D. They were held 1-1 at home by Widzew Lodz II on October 3. On the road, Pelikan Lowicz have been strong, unbeaten and collecting 9 points from 4 away matches (3 wins, 1 draw). A highlight was the 3-1 victory at Olimpia Zambrow on September 26.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no recent head-to-head meetings recorded between Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and Pelikan Lowicz. This upcoming III Liga contest will be the first direct confrontation in our data sample, adding an element of unpredictability to the match.

League Table Positions

Both clubs are tightly packed in the upper half of the III Liga table. Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki sit 3rd with 21 points from 11 matches (6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), having scored 27 goals (the most in the top six) and conceded 18. Pelikan Lowicz follow immediately in 5th place with 20 points from 11 games (6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), with a slightly tighter defense conceding 13 goals so far. Only one point separates the two sides, making this a direct battle for the podium spots.

Win Probability: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or Pelikan Lowicz?

We calculate the outcome probabilities based on the available bookmaker odds and the current form trends. The normalized implied probabilities give Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki a 38% chance to win, the draw a 38% probability, and Pelikan Lowicz a 24% chance. The reasoning: odds heavily favor the home side and the stalemate, while Pelikan's solid away record (W3 D1 L0) prevents their odds from drifting further. However, Mazovia's home firepower (15 goals in 6 home games) and overall 3rd-place ranking tip the probability slightly toward the hosts, with a significant chance of the points being shared.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very tight contest. The best available odds in the 1X2 market are 2.20 for a Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki home win, 2.40 for the draw, and 3.80 for an away victory for Pelikan Lowicz. The low margin between the home win and the draw odds suggests that a stalemate is considered almost as likely as a home success. Based on the stats and the league standings, we predict a match that leans toward Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or a draw, with Pelikan Lowicz likely finding the net but falling short of all three points.