Queensland Lions - Peninsula Power prediction 12 September 2026

The Queensland Lions vs Peninsula Power prediction for the NPL Queensland match on Aug 01, 2026, points to a tight battle between the top two sides. Our model gives the home team a 45% chance to win, while the draw stands at 30% and Peninsula Power hold a 25% win probability.

Team Form

Queensland Lions come into this clash with three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five outings. Their most recent result was a 0–0 Australia Cup draw at home to Perth Glory on Jul 21, followed by a 1–0 away win at Gold Coast United (Jul 18), a 1–0 home win over Eastern Suburbs (Jul 12), a 2–1 away defeat by Gold Coast Knights (Jul 7) and a 2–0 home victory against Brisbane Olympic FC (Jul 4). The sequence D–W–W–L–W highlights solid overall form and strong home performances.

Peninsula Power’s last five matches have produced two wins, two draws and one defeat. They drew 2–2 away at Moreton City Excelsior on Jul 18, lost 2–1 away to APIA Leichhardt Tigers in the Australia Cup (Jul 14), played a 0–0 home draw with Wynnum Wolves (Jul 10), won 3–1 away against Eastern Suburbs (Jul 4) and beat Brisbane Roar 2 3–1 at home (Jun 27). Their D–L–D–W–W form shows a slight uptick but also reveals some inconsistency on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favours the home side: across 21 meetings, the home team has won 14 times, with four draws and only three away wins. This historical pattern underlines the difficulty of winning away in this fixture.

Looking at the last five encounters between Queensland Lions and Peninsula Power, the picture is more balanced. The most recent match on Apr 25, 2026 saw Peninsula Power win 3–2 at home. Before that, Queensland Lions won 3–0 at home (Sep 06, 2025), then won 2–1 away (Aug 02, 2025), drew 1–1 at home (May 24, 2025) and lost 3–1 away in the Australia Cup (May 21, 2025). Each side has two wins in that span, with one draw.

League Table Positions

The NPL Queensland standings show Queensland Lions in first place with 44 points from 19 matches (14 wins, two draws, three defeats, goal difference +30). Peninsula Power are just one point behind in second place, with 43 points (13 wins, four draws, two losses, goal difference +23). At home, Queensland Lions are yet to lose: seven wins and two draws from nine games, 22 goals scored and only seven conceded. Peninsula Power’s away record is also strong: six wins, two draws and only one loss from nine trips, with 24 goals for and nine against.

Win Probability: Queensland Lions or Peninsula Power?

Based on the available odds, home form, head-to-head history and league positions, we calculate the win probability as follows: Queensland Lions 45%, draw 30%, Peninsula Power 25%.

The odds-implied chances (after removing the bookmaker margin) give Queensland Lions about 40% win probability, the draw around 32% and Peninsula Power about 28%. We have adjusted these figures upwards for the home side due to their unbeaten home season and the historical head-to-head trend where the home team wins 67% of the time. Peninsula Power’s excellent away record keeps them competitive, but the data suggests a home-favoured outcome is most likely.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmaker odds for this match show Queensland Lions as the favourite. One bookie offers home win at 2.05, draw at 2.60 and away win at 2.88; another lists home at 2.05, draw at 2.50 and away at 3.10. These quotes confirm that the market expects a close contest but leans toward the home side.

Taking into account all the stats – the strong home form, the head-to-head home bias and the league table – Queensland Lions are the most likely winners of this NPL Queensland match. However, with just one point separating the teams and a history of draws, punters should view the draw as a real possibility. Our prediction is a home victory, but with caution.