Persebaya Surabaya - Madura United prediction 26 October 2026

The Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United prediction identifies the home side as the most likely winner in this Liga 1 match on October 26 at 12:00. Based on our analysis of form, head-to-head record, league table and odds, Persebaya Surabaya has a 50% win probability, a draw sits at 30%, and Madura United has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Persebaya Surabaya’s last five results show two wins, two draws and one loss (L, D, W, D, W). That sequence includes a 0‑1 loss at PSM Makassar, a 2‑2 home draw against PSS Sleman, a 1‑0 away win over Adhyaksa Farmel FC, a 1‑1 home draw with Garudayaksa, and a 1‑0 home success against PSIM Yogyakarta. At home they are still unbeaten this league season.

Madura United come into the match with three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five (W, D, L, W, W). They beat Persib Bandung 1‑0 at home, shared a 3‑3 thriller with Bhayangkara Surabaya United, lost 0‑2 away to Persik Kediri, then recorded wins against PSIM Yogyakarta (2‑1 home) and PSS Sleman (3‑1 away). Their form is strong overall, though away results are mixed.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The overall head‑to‑head record over eight meetings gives Persebaya Surabaya four wins, Madura United two wins and two draws. Looking at the most recent five clashes: Madura won 2‑1 away in April 2026, Persebaya took a 1‑0 away win in January 2026, Persebaya won 1‑0 at home in April 2025, Persebaya won 2‑1 away in December 2024, and a 0‑0 home draw happened in March 2024. Persebaya have clearly had the historical edge, especially when playing at home.

League Table Positions

In the Liga 1 overall standings, Madura United sit 4th with 13 points from six matches (four wins, one draw, one loss, goal difference +4). Persebaya Surabaya are 10th with nine points (two wins, three draws, one loss, +1 goal difference). At home Persebaya have collected five points from three games (one win, two draws, no defeats), while Madura’s away record shows one win and one loss in two trips. The hosts’ unbeaten home form is a key factor in this match.

Win Probability: Persebaya Surabaya or Madura United?

The bookmakers’ odds imply a strong home‑win likelihood. From the available markets, a representative home win quote is 1.48, which after removing the margin gives Persebaya about a 53% chance. We have adjusted this figure based on the team forms, head‑to‑head record, and league positions. Persebaya’s solid home record (one win, two draws), combined with a favorable H2H at this stadium, supports a reasonable home advantage, but Madura United’s higher table position and decent overall form keep the contest balanced.

Our final win probability estimate is:
• Persebaya Surabaya win: 50%
• Draw: 30%
• Madura United win: 20%

Therefore, Persebaya Surabaya are the more likely team to win this match, but the draw represents a significant chance and must be considered by anyone evaluating the fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

From the bookmaker panel, the standard 1X2 market shows Persebaya Surabaya at around 1.48, the draw at 2.50, and Madura United at 5.00. Some operators even offer as high as 1.52 for the home win and 6.56 for the away win. These odds clearly price the hosts as favourites.

Our prediction: based on the stats, the most probable scenario is a Persebaya Surabaya victory. However, with the hosts drawing two of three home games and Madura United capable of strong performances, a low‑scoring affair or a share of the points is also a realistic outcome.