Persik Kediri - Madura United prediction 9 October 2026

Persik Kediri vs Madura United prediction: the Liga 1 match on Oct 9, 2026 at 09:30 sees in-form Madura United as the favourite with a 40% win probability, despite bookmakers pricing Persik Kediri as the slight favourite. The hosts sit 11th in the table with 4 points, while the visitors are 2nd with a perfect 9 points from three games.

Team Form

Persik Kediri's recent form is poor. In their last five matches they have recorded one draw, one win, and three losses (D, W, L, L, L). They drew 1-1 away at Arema Indonesia on Sep 18, beat Garudayaksa 2-0 away on Sep 11, but lost 0-1 at home to Dewa United Banten on Sep 5, 0-5 away at Persebaya Surabaya on May 23, and 1-3 at home to Persija Jakarta on May 16. That run includes only one win in five, with the home defeats particularly worrying.

Madura United, by contrast, are on a five-match winning streak (W, W, W, W, W). They beat PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 at home on Sep 18, won 3-1 away at PSS Sleman on Sep 12, defeated Persijap Jepara 2-0 at home on Sep 6, won 3-1 away at Borneo Samarinda in a friendly on Aug 26, and beat PSM Makassar 2-0 at home on May 23. Across these five games they scored 12 goals and conceded only 3, showing both attacking power and defensive solidity.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favours Madura United, who have won 4 of the 6 meetings, with Persik Kediri winning 2 and no draws. The last five encounters:

• Apr 11, 2026: Madura United 2-1 Persik Kediri
• Aug 16, 2025: Persik Kediri 1-2 Madura United
• Apr 28, 2025: Madura United 2-1 Persik Kediri
• Dec 6, 2024: Persik Kediri 1-0 Madura United
• Nov 8, 2023: Persik Kediri 4-0 Madura United

Madura United have won the last three meetings, all by a one-goal margin. Persik Kediri's last win came at home in December 2024.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga 1 standings, Madura United are 2nd with 9 points from 3 matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses), scoring 7 and conceding 2. Persik Kediri are 11th with 4 points from 3 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss), scoring 3 and conceding 2. The away standings show Persik Kediri in 2nd place with 4 points from 2 away games, but this match is at home, where they have not featured in the top 8 home table. Madura United are 3rd in the away standings with 3 points from 1 away game (a 3-1 win).

Win Probability: Persik Kediri or Madura United?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Persik Kediri 35%, Draw 25%, Madura United 40%. The bookmakers' opening odds (home 2.18, draw 3.56, away 3.33) imply a 44% chance for a home win, 27% for the draw, and 29% for an away win. However, Madura United's perfect form, dominant recent H2H, and higher league position justify a significant adjustment in their favour. Persik Kediri's poor home results further reduce their chances. Therefore, Madura United are the more likely winners, but the match could still be close.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds from one bookmaker show Persik Kediri at 2.18, the draw at 3.56, and Madura United at 3.33. Other bookmakers offer similar prices, with home odds ranging from 2.00 to 2.18, draw odds from 2.18 to 3.56, and away odds from 3.30 to 3.50. Bookmakers see Persik Kediri as the favourite, but our analysis, factoring in recent performances and head-to-head trends, points to Madura United having the edge. Based on the stats, Madura United to win is the most probable outcome, though a draw cannot be ruled out given the tight historical scorelines.