Persiraja Banda Aceh - Sumsel United prediction 2 October 2026

The Persiraja Banda Aceh vs Sumsel United prediction for their Liga 2 match on October 2, 2026, at 14:30 points to a tight contest at home for Persiraja. Based on the available odds and recent form, Persiraja Banda Aceh has a 38% win probability, the draw is at 42%, and Sumsel United holds a 20% chance. The bookmakers see the hosts as marginal favourites, but the stats suggest a draw is the most likely match outcome.

Team Form

Persiraja Banda Aceh come into this fixture in poor shape. Their last five matches across all competitions have produced three defeats and two draws (L, L, L, D, D). The most recent losses came on the road against Persikad Depok (2-1) and PSPS Pekanbaru (2-1), followed by a home loss to Semen Padang (0-1). The two draws were both 1-1 against PSMS Medan (home) and Persekat Kabupaten Tegal (away). The team has not tasted victory in their last five outings, which is a concern for their win probability.

Sumsel United's form is also mixed. Their last five games returned one win, one draw and three losses (L, L, D, W, L). The solitary victory was a convincing 3-1 home win over Persekat Kabupaten Tegal. Otherwise, they lost 1-2 at home to PSPS Pekanbaru, suffered a 2-0 away defeat at PSGC Ciamis, and were beaten 2-0 by PSPS Pekanbaru away. A 2-2 home draw with PSMS Medan offered some respite. Sumsel United’s away form, especially, has been fragile with three losses in the last four road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is limited to three meetings, all in Liga 2. Persiraja Banda Aceh lead with 2 wins, Sumsel United have 1 victory, and there have been no draws. The most recent clash on April 4, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home win for Persiraja. The previous home fixture for Persiraja also finished 3-1. Sumsel United’s only win came as hosts – a 3-2 victory on September 22, 2025. The home side has won each encounter, which underlines Persiraja’s historical advantage when playing at their own ground.

Win Probability: Persiraja Banda Aceh or Sumsel United?

We calculated the win probability for every outcome by starting from the average bookmaker odds (home win 2.21, draw 2.23, away win 4.49), converting them to implied chances, removing the margin, and then adjusting for team form and H2H data. The initial market-based probabilities were approximately 40% home win, 40% draw, 20% away win. However, Persiraja’s very poor recent run (0 wins in 5) and Sumsel United’s slight improvement with one win lower the home side’s edge slightly, while the head-to-head record still favours Persiraja. The final weighted probabilities are: Persiraja Banda Aceh win 38%, draw 42%, Sumsel United win 20%. A stalemate is the single most probable scenario.

Chances of a home victory are hindered by Persiraja’s lack of goals – just 3 scored in their last 5 matches – while Sumsel United have conceded 9 times in the same span. The overall match outcome points to a low-scoring affair with a high draw probability.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds are tight. Across the three available bookmakers, the home win is priced between 2.18 and 2.25, the draw is very similarly quoted at 2.18–2.25, and the away win is a longer 4.33–4.65. For example, one bookmaker offers 2.25 for a Persiraja Banda Aceh win, 2.25 for the draw, and 4.50 for Sumsel United. These odds reflect a contest where the draw is seen as almost as probable as a home win.

Our betting tips: based on the stats and the H2H record, the value might lie in the draw market given the 42% chance against odds of around 2.25. Persiraja Banda Aceh remain the nominal favourite, but their current form leaves them vulnerable. The match prediction is a low-scoring draw, perhaps 1-1, though a narrow home win cannot be ruled out if Persiraja rediscover their H2H dominance. Always check team news before placing any wager.