Philadelphia Union - New England Revolution prediction 25 October 2026

Our Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution prediction for this MLS clash on October 25, 2026, at 00:30 points toward a home advantage. Based on our probability model, Philadelphia Union has a 52% chance of winning, while a draw sits at 24% and New England Revolution has a 24% chance. The bookmakers' odds and recent form strongly support the home side as the favorite.

Team Form

Philadelphia Union are in excellent shape with four wins and one draw in their last five matches (D, W, W, W, W). They recently drew 2-2 at home against Charlotte FC and earned a convincing 3-1 away win at Chicago Fire. Over their last five, they scored 15 goals and conceded 9.

New England Revolution have recorded three wins and two losses in the same period (W, W, L, L, W). Their most recent match was a 1-0 home win against Chicago Fire. Just before that, they beat FC Cincinnati 3-2 away but suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat to Seattle Sounders.

Head-to-Head Record

History strongly favors Philadelphia Union. In 32 previous meetings across all competitions, Philadelphia Union have won 20 times, New England Revolution 7, with 5 draws. Looking at recent MLS encounters, Philadelphia Union won the last home fixture 1-0 in September 2025. The most recent clash saw New England win 2-1 at home in May 2026. Philadelphia Union have claimed victory in four of the last five H2H meetings.

League Table Positions

New England Revolution sit 4th in the overall MLS standings with 52 points from 30 matches (16 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses). Philadelphia Union are 11th with 46 points (13 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses). However, at home, Philadelphia Union rank higher (6th home table) with a strong record, while New England hold the 7th spot in the away table with 20 points from 15 road trips.

Win Probability: Philadelphia Union or New England Revolution?

We calculate Philadelphia Union's win probability at 52%, a draw at 24%, and a New England Revolution victory at 24%. This assessment starts from the bookmaker odds (inverse implied probabilities, normalized for the margin) and is adjusted for Philadelphia Union's dominant head-to-head record (20 wins in 32 games), their current hot form, and the fact they are playing at home. Despite New England's higher overall league position, their away form and the historical fixture dominance of Philadelphia Union tilt the balance clearly toward the home side.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a home win at best odds around 1.50 to 1.56, the draw at 2.62 to 4.80, and an away win at 4.33 to 5.40. These betting odds firmly position Philadelphia Union as the favorite. Based on the stats, form, and head-to-head record, the most likely outcome is a Philadelphia Union victory. A draw or an away win would be an upset according to the probabilities and the odds.