Piast Gliwice - Cracovia Krakow prediction 24 October 2026

Our Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow prediction for the Ekstraklasa match on October 24 at 11:15 gives the hosts a clear edge. Piast Gliwice enters this fixture as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while Cracovia Krakow lags at 25% and the draw stands at 35%. The clash at Stadion Piasta Gliwice sees two mid‑table sides aiming to climb the league standings.

Team Form

Piast Gliwice approach this match with a mixed run of results over their last five games: D, W, L, L, W. The home win over Widzew Lodz (2-1) and an away victory at Radomiak Radom (2-0) showcased attacking quality, but defeats to Pogon Szczecin (1-2) and a friendly loss to Wisla Krakow (3-4) exposed defensive frailties. A 1-1 draw at Gornik Zabrze in the most recent outing added another point.

Cracovia Krakow are struggling for consistency, reflected in their last five results: D, W, L, L, L. A 1-1 home draw against Legia Warszawa and a convincing 3-1 win over Zaglebie Lubin offered hope, but three straight away defeats – 2-3 at GKS Katowice, 1-3 at Wisla Plock, and a 0-1 home loss to Gornik Zabrze – underline problems, especially on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow head‑to‑head history heavily favors the hosts. In the last seven meetings, Piast Gliwice has won once and drawn six times; Cracovia has never tasted victory in this span. The most recent encounter, on February 27, 2026, ended 3-2 in Piast’s favor at Cracovia. Three of the last four clashes finished 0-0, indicating tight defensive battles. Over the full head‑to‑head record, the stats read: 1 home win, 6 draws, 0 away wins.

League Table Positions

In the Ekstraklasa table, Piast Gliwice sits 8th with 17 points after 11 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses), scoring 19 goals and conceding 17. Cracovia Krakow is 10th with 12 points (3 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses), netting 13 and allowing 16. At home, Piast ranks 8th with 10 points from 6 games (3W, 1D, 2L). Cracovia’s away form does not appear in the top eight away standings, suggesting significant vulnerability on their travels. The five‑point gap and the home advantage tilt the scales toward Piast Gliwice.

Win Probability: Piast Gliwice or Cracovia Krakow?

We have calculated the match outcome probabilities using the available odds, team form, head‑to‑head record, and league positions. The raw odds from the selected bookmaker imply: Piast Gliwice win 39.2% (2.55), draw 44.4% (2.25), Cracovia Krakow win 35.5% (2.82). After removing the bookmaker margin, the fair probabilities become roughly 33%, 37.5%, and 29.5% respectively. However, these numbers do not fully capture Piast’s unbeaten H2H run (1 win, 6 draws) and a better home form. Adjusting for that dominance and the home ground factor, we project the following final win probabilities:

• Piast Gliwice win – 40%
• Draw – 35%
• Cracovia Krakow win – 25%

Thus, Piast Gliwice is the more likely winner, with a 15 percentage‑point advantage over Cracovia, while the draw remains a strong possibility given the history of stalemates.

Odds & Match Prediction

The betting odds for the 1X2 market show Piast Gliwice at 2.55, the draw at 2.25, and Cracovia Krakow at 2.82. Bookmakers view this as a balanced contest, with the draw as the shortest price. Based on all the stats, our Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow prediction is a home win or draw double chance, but the value may lie with the draw given the six draws in seven previous meetings. For betting tips, a low‑scoring affair could be expected, as four of the last five H2H games produced under 2.5 goals. Piast Gliwice, unbeaten in seven against this opponent and playing at home, are the safer pick to avoid defeat.