Podlasie Biala Podlaska - Star Starachowice prediction 1 October 2026

The Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Star Starachowice prediction for this III Liga match on Oct 1, 2026 at 17:00 shows the home side as a slight favourite. Based on head‑to‑head record and current form, Podlasie Biala Podlaska has a 45% chance of winning, a draw is rated at 30%, and Star Starachowice has a 25% probability of victory.

Team Form

Podlasie Biala Podlaska enter the game in poor recent form. Their last five matches (most recent first) have produced one win, one draw and three defeats:

• Sep 26 – L 1‑2 vs Chelminianka Chelmno (A)
• Sep 19 – L 0‑2 vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg (A)
• Sep 11 – W 2‑1 vs Wieczysta II Krakow (H)
• Sep 6 – L 0‑1 vs Wisloka Debica (A)
• Aug 28 – D 0‑0 vs Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna (H)

Star Starachowice have shown slightly better consistency with one win, two draws and two losses in their last five outings:

• Sep 26 – W 4‑1 vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg (H)
• Sep 19 – D 0‑0 vs Wieczysta II Krakow (A)
• Sep 13 – L 2‑3 vs Wisloka Debica (H)
• Sep 4 – D 0‑0 vs Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna (A)
• Aug 29 – L 0‑3 vs Jaroslaw (A)

Head‑to‑Head Record

The head‑to‑head numbers heavily favour Podlasie Biala Podlaska. In three previous meetings, they have never lost to Star Starachowice (1 win, 2 draws). The most recent clash was on May 23, 2026 – a 1‑1 draw at Star. The other two results were a 2‑1 home win for Podlasie on Nov 8, 2025 and a 1‑1 away draw on Oct 14, 2023.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the III Liga overall standings – the available data stops at 12th place. That means both Podlasie Biala Podlaska and Star Starachowice are sitting in the lower half of the table. Without exact positions or points gaps, the league table does not give a clear favourite, but it confirms the two sides are likely in a similar mid‑to‑lower ranking zone.

Win Probability: Podlasie Biala Podlaska or Star Starachowice?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• Podlasie Biala Podlaska win: 45%
• Draw: 30%
• Star Starachowice win: 25%

These numbers are based purely on the head‑to‑head edge (Podlasie are unbeaten in three meetings, 1W‑2D) and the home advantage factor. Although Podlasie’s recent form is worse than Star’s (4 points from 5 games vs 5 points), the H2H record and the fact they are playing at home tilt the probability in their favour. A draw remains a very realistic outcome, as two of the three H2H matches ended level.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not provided in the available data. Based on the statistical analysis, our Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Star Starachowice prediction is that the home side is the more likely winner with a 45% probability. However, the low‑scoring nature of recent meetings (both draws were 1‑1) and the mixed form of both teams suggest a tight contest. Star Starachowice cannot be ruled out entirely, but the stats point towards a home win or a draw.