Pogon Siedlce - Puszcza Niepolomice prediction 15 October 2026

This Pogon Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepolomice prediction covers the I Liga match on Oct 15 at 17:30 at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce. Based on recent I Liga stats, Pogon Siedlce comes in as a slight favorite with approximately a 38% win probability, while Puszcza Niepolomice's poor form drops their chances to around 25%, leaving a high 37% probability for a draw.

Team Form

Pogon Siedlce's recent five league and cup matches show a mixed pattern: one loss, one win, and three draws (L, W, D, D, D). At home, they secured a 2-1 victory over Arka Gdynia and a 0-0 draw against this same opponent. Puszcza Niepolomice is in a deep crisis with four straight losses and one draw (L, L, L, L, D). Their last I Liga outing was a 0-1 home defeat to Polonia Bytom. In the head-to-head clash on Sep 6, the match ended 0-0.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times in the I Liga. Puszcza Niepolomice holds a historical edge with one away win, while Pogon Siedlce has yet to beat them, resulting in two draws. The most recent meeting on Sep 6 finished in a scoreless stalemate in Siedlce. Earlier this year, Puszcza won 3-0 at home, and the first recorded fixture ended 0-0.

League Table Positions

Pogon Siedlce sits 10th in the overall I Liga table with 12 points from 9 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). Their goal difference is +1 (9 scored, 8 conceded). At home, however, they rank a strong 2nd with 10 points from 5 home games. Puszcza Niepolomice is not present in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating they are lower in the standings and struggling for consistency this season.

Win Probability: Pogon Siedlce or Puszcza Niepolomice?

Analyzing the available data, Pogon Siedlce has a 38% chance of winning, the draw stands at 37%, and Puszcza Niepolomice has a 25% chance. The calculation uses the bookmaker odds as a base: inverse odds for home (2.62) give 38.2%, draw (2.15) gives 46.5%, and away (2.82) gives 35.5%. After normalizing to remove the margin, we adjust heavily based on team form. Puszcza's four consecutive defeats reduce their actual winning likelihood significantly, while Pogon Siedlce's solid home record (2nd in home table) and recent stability boost their probability, though the high H2H draw rate (two of three matches) keeps the draw percentage elevated.

Odds & Match Prediction

Pre-match odds show bookmakers favoring the draw at 2.15 (or 2.20), with a Pogon Siedlce home win priced at 2.62 (or 2.50) and a Puszcza Niepolomice away win at 2.82 (or 3.00). Considering Puszcza's dreadful away form, the head-to-head history of stalemates, and Pogon's strong home standing, the stats point toward a low-scoring affair. The most likely outcome based on the data is a draw.