Poland - Sweden prediction 17 November 2026
Poland
Sweden
Bosnia-HerzegovinaPolandPolandRomaniaSwedenPolandPolandBosnia-HerzegovinaPolandNigeriaPolandUkraineSwedenPolandPolandAlbaniaFrancePolandPolandItalyPolandAlgeriaPolandNew ZealandPolandMoldovaPolandScotlandPortugalPolandRomaniaSwedenBosnia-HerzegovinaSwedenSwedenPolandSwedenRomaniaFranceSwedenJapanSwedenNetherlandsSwedenSwedenTunisiaSwedenGreeceNorwaySwedenSwedenPolandUkraineSwedenSwedenAlgeriaHungarySwedenSwedenNorthern IrelandSwedenPolandSwedenPolandPolandSweden| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |  Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 |
| 6 |  Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:0 | +4 | 8 |
| 9 |  Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 8 |
| 10 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:3 | +3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:1 | +8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | +6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 7 |
| 17 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 7 |
| 18 |  Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 7 |
| 19 |  England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | +8 | 6 |
| 20 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 6 |
| 21 |  Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 |
| 22 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | +1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 24 |  Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | +1 | 5 |
| 25 |  Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 5 |
| 26 |  Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 5 |
| 27 |  Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | +2 | 5 |
| 28 |  Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 |  Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 4 |
| 30 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 31 |  Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 4 |
| 32 |  Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | +2 | 4 |
| 33 |  Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 4 |
| 34 |  Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 35 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:4 | +3 | 4 |
| 36 |  Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 4 |
| 37 |  Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 38 |  Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | -9 | 3 |
| 39 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 40 |  Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 41 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 42 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 43 |  Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 2 |
| 44 |  Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 2 |
| 45 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
| 46 |  Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 47 |  Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 1 |
| 48 |  Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 1 |
| 49 |  North Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:7 | -7 | 0 |
| 50 |  San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:14 | -14 | 0 |
| 51 |  Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | -5 | 0 |
| 52 |  Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
| 53 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:13 | -10 | 0 |
| 54 |  Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 |
Sweden vs Poland Prediction (Sep 28, 2026)
This Sweden vs Poland prediction covers the UEFA Nations League match on Sep 28, 2026, at 19:45 at Strawberry Arena in Stockholm. Sweden enter the match as the bookmakersโ favourite, and based on odds, form and head-to-head record they have a 52% win probability. Poland have a 26% chance and the draw is at 22%.
Team Form
Sweden
Swedenโs last five results are W, L, D, L, W. They beat Romania 2-1 at home in the UEFA Nations League on Sep 25, and also beat Tunisia 5-1 in the World Cup. They drew 1-1 with Japan, lost 5-1 to Netherlands and lost 3-0 to France. In those five matches Sweden scored 9 goals and conceded 11.
Poland
Polandโs last five results are D, D, L, L, W. They drew 0-0 with Bosnia-Herzegovina on Sep 25, drew 2-2 with Nigeria, lost 2-0 to Ukraine, lost 3-2 to Sweden, and beat Albania 2-1. Poland scored 6 goals and conceded 8 across those five games.
Head-to-Head Record
The supplied head-to-head data shows one win for Sweden and one win for Poland, with no draws.
- Mar 31, 2026: Sweden 3-2 Poland (World Cup Qualification Play Off)
- Mar 29, 2022: Poland 2-0 Sweden (World Cup)
Sweden won the most recent meeting 3-2, which may give them a psychological edge.
League Table Positions
The supplied standings data places Sweden 11th in the overall table with 3 points from 1 played, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1. Sweden also rank 4th in the home standings with 3 points from 1 home match.
Win Probability: Sweden or Poland?
The available 1X2 odds average about 2.07 for Sweden, 2.57 for the draw, and 3.39 for Poland. The inverse of these odds normalizes to roughly 41% Sweden, 33% draw, and 25% Poland before adjustments.
After adjusting for home advantage at Strawberry Arena, Swedenโs latest 2-1 win over Romania, the 3-2 head-to-head win in March 2026, and Polandโs mixed form, the final probabilities are: Sweden has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Poland has a 26% chance.
Odds & Sweden vs Poland Prediction
Bookmakers see Sweden as the favourite. The available match odds range from 1.95 to 2.15 for Sweden, 2.22 to 3.78 for the draw, and 3.25 to 3.60 for Poland.
Based on the stats, the final prediction is Sweden to win. Poland are capable of causing problems, but the home advantage, odds and recent head-to-head result all point to Sweden as the more likely winner. For betting tips, the data supports Sweden to win.
Sweden vs Poland โ FAQ
- Who will win Sweden vs Poland?
- Sweden are the most likely winner. Based on the stats, Sweden has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Poland has a 26% chance.
- What is the win probability for Sweden?
- Sweden has a 52% chance to win. This is based on the available odds, home advantage at Strawberry Arena, and their 3-2 win in the most recent head-to-head meeting with Poland in March 2026.
- When is the Sweden vs Poland match?
- The Sweden vs Poland match is on Sep 28, 2026, at 19:45. It is a UEFA Nations League fixture at Strawberry Arena in Stockholm.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The available 1X2 odds show Sweden at 1.95โ2.15, the draw at 2.22โ3.78, and Poland at 3.25โ3.60. These odds make Sweden the favourite.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sweden and Poland?
- The supplied data shows one win each and no draws. Poland won 2-0 in 2022, and Sweden won the most recent match 3-2 on Mar 31, 2026.